SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Oct 3/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image001.jpg@01CD002F.571BB930]
Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 3-5 cents, strong demand and tighter than expected stocks continue to keep the market elevated (Mpls Dec last trade 7.51 ½, KC Dec 7.58)
Soybeans are 9-12 higher, bouncing back despite higher than expected US yields and South American planting progress (Nov last trade 12.85 ½)
Corn is 2-4 higher, market seems to be finding support at current level (Dec last trade 4.41 ½)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, stronger bean oil may lift prices but extremely shaky demand pushes things down pretty heavily
Canola is 25-30 cents higher, taking cue from a rising soybean complex, some buying interest
Attention seems to have shifted from the government shutdown to the debt ceiling. Resolution does not seem close on either subject at the moment. The US dollar is slightly higher after starting out the day trading lower. There is not an export sales report today as the USDA is shut down. The market has estimated sales but we have no way of knowing whether or not they are accurate without the report from the USDA. Showers across the Midwest have delayed harvest in areas, the Dakotas included.
There is continued chatter of rains to the Black Sea region that is delaying winter wheat seeding in Russia and Ukraine. Acres are expected to be significantly below estimates but that could all change with a turn in the weather. Along with that are ideas that US demand is improving and stocks are tighter than what the market expected, which together are working to push prices a little bit higher. Argentina is reportedly holding back wheat exports in an effort to build up domestic supplies, which in turn will contribute to a decrease of wheat available in the export market. Statistics Canada is to release its crop estimates tomorrow and expectations are for a larger crop. The USDA currently has the Canadian crop pegged at 31.5 million MTand StatsCan is expected to come out with an estimate of 32.5 million MT
Good US yields continue to dominate the news in the soybean market. However, after the recent plunge in prices it seems that the market is finding some support and willing to recover for the time being. Export sales were estimated to be fairly strong for the week but we'll never know since the USDA is not in a position to provide us with that information. South America has been having some pretty good planting weather and expectations are for large crops out of Brazil and Argentina this year.
The sunflower market gets weaker by the day. As I said yesterday, birdfood buyers are running scared and crush prices seem to fall several times daily. Demand just isn't there and cheaper corn prices (thus cheaper corn oil) means cheaper sunflower prices as well. The flax market is also struggling to hold ground. The large Canadian crop is making up for what didn't get seeded in the US this year and that means prices could struggle to maintain current values. Export demand is estimated to be fairly quiet this year.
A decline in corn values has led to an increase in ethanol production as plants operate a lot easier when input costs are low. Prices seem content at current levels for now but once harvest starts ramping up we'll probably see more pressure...especially if yields keep coming in better than expected. Export demand is fairly quiet right now and sales estimates for the week were not anything too exciting.
It looks like the grain markets are staging a bit of a bounce today off of little fresh news, but we're happy to have higher cash prices no matter the reason.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
[image003.jpg]
1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
