SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Aug 1/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image001.jpg@01CD002F.571BB930]
Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is 1-6 lower, winter wheat markets sharply lower but spring wheat is holding its own (Mpls Sept last trade 7.40 ½, KC Sept 7.01 ¼)
Soybeans are down 2-4 cents, not much fresh news, even stronger than expected export sales can't support prices (Nov last trade 12.03 ¾)
Corn is 5-7 lower, lack of weather threat lets prices drift lower (Sept last trade 4.93 ½)
Sunflowers are up 10-15 cents, bean oil higher this morning and may help sunflower prices, lack of demand interest will limit gains
Canola is up 10-20 cents, futures staging a little bit of a bounce, perhaps some buying interest after recent, strong sell pressure
Today:
Crude oil futures are sharply higher this morning on yesterday's Fed statement saying that quantitative easing is set to continue the way it has been for the time being. Crude prices are up about $2.30/barrel at the moment. The US dollar is also higher this morning. Grain futures are mixed to mostly lower after a quiet overnight session. Wheat futures are following corn prices lower and soybeans drift lower on an absence of fresh news. Export sales for the week were really quite good but grain prices just do not seem to care at the moment.
A lack of strength to the corn market lets wheat prices continue to drift lower. Harvest activity may be pushing winter wheat futures to bigger losses than the spring wheat futures right now. Spring wheat futures are down only a penny which is pretty good considering the losses in the winter wheat markets. The wheat market is hoping that some technical buying may provide some strength in the coming days but with falling corn prices, harvest activity, good spring wheat ratings and a lack of major concern to the global crop there is little reason for wheat to do so. There are thoughts that Ukrainian wheat exports for 2013-14 could be higher than current USDSA estimates, adding weight to the global export market. US export sales for the week were just above the low end of estimates that ranged from 500-700 thousand metric MT(TMT) at 596.9 TMT. There are some rumblings beginning to surface about dry weather to western Australia reducing production.
I wish I had something to write about for the soybean market but there really is not much. Export sales for the week were much higher than estimates that ranged from 400-800 TMT at 1109.4 TMT. Both soybeans and soybean meal are lower. Soybean oil is higher, I'm assuming that those gains probably have the most to do with the increasing canola market and crude prices.
With the lack of a nearby weather threat to the US corn crop prices are drifting lower again today. Mostly above normal precipitation is in the forecast for US corn growing areas in the 10 day forecast. Some drier areas are forecast for precip as well, which may help ease some concerns. Of course, these rains need to be realized to benefit the crop so we continue to find ourselves in a weather market. Ukrainian corn export estimates for 2013-14 are lower than the current USDA estimate which could be encouraging for prices. US export sales for the week were pretty strong with most of the sales being for new crop. Sales were 1225.2 TMT, above estimates that ranged from 475-875 TMT. Even a strong weekly export sales report is doing little to help prices this morning and corn futures are nearing double digit losses.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
[image003.jpg]
1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
