SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jul 29/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 3-5 cents, speculative buying boosts prices, higher corn futures also help (Mpls Sept last trade 7.40, KC Sept 6.95 ½)
Soybeans are 0-2 lower, speculative selling, large US crop potential (Nov last trade 12.26 ½)
Corn is up 3-5 cents, speculators buying to even positions at month end, weather mostly favorable (Sept last trade 4.96 ¾)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, market continues to drop with strong selling pressure and a falling soybean market
Canola is down 20-30 cents, futures sink with soybeans, large production potential
Today:
There is really little fresh or exciting news to drive prices for the grain markets today and it seems that most action is being guided by speculators evening their positions for the end of the month. Outside markets are providing little, if any, direction as the US dollar is slightly higher and crude oil prices are up 22 cents/barrel. Weather is not viewed as a crop threat right now. Forecasts call for normal precipitation across much of the US growing areas combined with below normal temperatures which is ideal for the pollinating crop. Potential for large US 2013 production also weighs on prices.
News of a killing frost in Brazil, reportedly impacting up to 5% of the wheat crop, hit the market Friday but seems to be doing little to prices at the moment. Today's higher price action seems to be coming from end of month speculative buying more than anything. Basis values for spring wheat have been weakening with a pre-harvest pickup in movement across North Dakota. Potential for good spring wheat yields was found in last week's tour which may also weigh on prices as we move forward. The Black Sea Region will also continue to provide strong export competition as we move forward.
Long term weather looks pretty good for the US soybean crop and the market is struggling with ideas that US 2013 production could be pretty strong. Additionally, funds are selling off some of their bought positions in the soybean market which is also providing some weakness to prices this morning. Canola futures are sharply lower again this morning as that market continues to look for its bottom. The drop off in nearby cash prices is due to the convergence of old crop and new crop bids. If you notice, August delivery canola cash bids were left unchanged on Friday while July prices were down $1.00/cwt. Sunflower prices are also struggling recently but that's due to a hefty increase in movement over the past few weeks, combined with a lack of strong demand.
Corn prices are slightly higher this morning but it doesn't have to do much with fundamental factors so much as it does with funds doing their month end buying, evening up their positions. Weather forecasts are viewed as mostly favorable as cool weather is sticking around. Some strength may come from ideas that not enough rain was received over the weekend in dry areas but I honestly think that is having little to do with today's higher price action. Some support may come from ideas that lower prices have spurred some demand from higher prices. Crop conditions today are expected to either stay the same or decline slightly - citing dryness in areas.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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