SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jul 17/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:50 AM CDT:
Wheat is mixed, Minneapolis leading way higher but lower corn and soybeans combined with harvest pressure makes it difficult for wheat to trade higher (Mpls Sept last trade 7.59, KC Sept 7.02 ¾)
Soybeans are 9-11 lower, the markets need some fresh news, without it they are susceptible to trading lower, old crop does better due to tight supplies (Nov last trade 12.76 ¼)
Corn is down 3-5 cents, weather forecasts call for dry, cool weather (Sept last trade 5.42)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, bean oil slightly lower this morning which may guide sunflowers lower
Canola is unchanged, futures board pretty quiet so far this morning despite the falling soybean complex
Yesterday:
Grains were solidly higher at the beginning of the day due to hot and dry weather in the forecast but as the day progressed more weather models came out that called for wetter weather. Grain futures then backed off their highs but still did pretty well for the day. Soybeans did especially well as the drop in crop conditions combined with weather concerns was enough to push prices 23 cents higher by the end of the session. Canola followed suit, closing 15 cents/cwt higher for the day. Flax and sunflowers, though, were unchanged. Corn futures also found support from declining crop conditions and unfavorable forecasts. Corn finished the day with old crop prices nine cents higher. Wheat followed stronger corn and soybean markets with Minneapolis leading the way higher due to a drop in crop conditions. Spring wheat finished the day four cents higher and hard red winter wheat was up two cents. A lower US dollar was also supportive to grain futures in yesterday's session.
Today:
The grain markets could really use some fresh direction today because without it things are quietly drifting lower. These markets are all about weather right now and could use something in the way of an update to give prices some indication of which way to trade. Little fresh demand news for the grain markets also makes grain markets uncertain of what to do today as well. Outside markets are fairly quiet this morning as the US dollar has been on both sides of unchanged, quiet in front of Bernanke's talk today, and crude prices are about 30 cents a barrel lower.
Wheat futures are trying to trade higher this morning, continuing yesterday's strength, but are having a tough time doing so with the falling corn and soybean markets. Additionally, continuing winter wheat harvest is probably also weighing on things just a bit. Expectations for strong global production in top producing countries will also put a lid on prices. News that South Korea bought some US white wheat after lifting their ban due to the GMO scare is encouraging and spurs hope that Japan may follow suit shortly. Japan is now alone in restricting imports of US western white wheat. China is out looking for wheat in the global marketplace, reportedly in talks with Australia. The market is optimistic that China will be looking for more wheat and hopeful that it could come to the US for some supply.
News remains scarce in the corn and soybean markets. Tight old crop supplies help the August soybean contract trade higher but all other months are showing losses right now. Crushers reportedly have decent coverage for the next couple of weeks but will probably have a tough time finding supply until new crop arrives...and new crop harvest looks to be a bit delayed due to the late spring that we had. So things could stay fairly interesting for the soybean market but with the absence of a weather threat prices are susceptible to trading lower. The corn market is also seeing fairly choppy trade today as it waits for an updated weather report or any further export news. In general corn buyers are stepping back and waiting for lower prices as there is not any major crop threat for the time being.
The North Dakota FSA office released yesterday that ND has an estimated 4.4 million prevent plant acres in 2013 but the final numbers will not be known until November or December. See the article at the link copied in below for the full article.
http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/article/id/268466/
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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