SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 24/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is 4-13 cents lower, spring wheat holds gains, winter wheat markets lower with harvest pressure, weather (Mpls Sept last trade 7.87 ½, KC Sept 7.25 ¾)
Soybeans are down 9-11 cents, fund liquidation, crop considered mostly planted with a few problem areas lagging behind (Nov last trade 12.63 ¼)
Corn is down 10-13 cents, funds exit long corn positions, sell off futures, mostly crop beneficial weather in the forecast (Dec last trade 5.44 ½)
Sunflowers are 10-15 cents lower, bean oil sharply lower with the falling soybean market, pulls sunflowers along
Canola is down 25-30 cents, market happily sells off with soybeans, crude
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main facility will be closed for dumping July 1st-3rd for scheduled maintenance. Offices and the Minot East and West facilities will be open during this time. Thank you for your cooperation!
*AOG Contracts*
If you have an Act of God contract with us and are/were unable to get your crop seeded, please let us know as soon as possible. Also, just a reminder, we need a copy of your FSA 578 forms on seeded and PP acres when they're available for all AOG contracts (HO Sunflowers, Victory Canola, commodity canola, flax and NuSuns). If you have any questions please let us know. Thank you!
Friday:
Grain markets were fairly choppy to start on Friday's session. The US dollar was sharply higher and that had the grain markets on edge, especially when combined with investors getting their positions squared in front of this week's USDA reports. Favorable weather forecasts really worked to push corn and soybean prices lower toward the end of the trading session and both markets finished the day with cash prices 12 cents lower. Sunflower and canola prices turned lower with the soybean market, both posting double digit losses for the day. Wheat markets were a bit higher during most of the day but couldn't hold gains when the corn and soybean markets started to drift lower. Spring wheat finished the day down three cents and hard red winter wheat was down two cents. All in all it was a pretty quiet session with the markets trading weather forecasts ahead of the weekend.
Today:
Grain futures turned lower late last week and just have not really looked back since. It does not help that negative economic news out of China has the US dollar higher and crude prices lower for yet another day. Noncommercial investors are also exiting some of their positions as they feel more money can be made elsewhere, which is dragging futures down a bit as well. The grain markets are also looking to this week's USDA reports for direction. Corn and spring wheat conditions should be fairly high, hard red winter wheat progress is picking up and the market is fairly confident about soybean planting numbers. Forecasts look to remain mostly crop favorable in major US growing areas which is really keeping things lower today also.
Russian planting is reportedly wrapping up with more total acres seeded this year. However, the reports indicate that Russia seeded less spring wheat this year and opted for more corn acres. Russia is expected to provide some pretty tough export competition as selling picks up. Monsanto said Friday that sabotage may be the reason that we saw GMO wheat appear in that field in Oregon. The GMO wheat was reportedly found in an isolated area of the field, not spread throughout as you would expect with seed contamination. I'm also hearing that the GMO wheat was in fact spring wheat, just found in a soft white wheat field. Take it for what it's worth, as always with things of this nature there are several stories you hear. Winter wheat futures are really having a tough time this morning as the first big harvest weekend just took place and futures are struggling with hedge pressure. I'm still hearing reports of low yields and high protein, but yields will likely improve as harvest moves north.
The soybean market is seeing lower prices with fund liquidation and ideas that the US crop is mostly planted pressuring prices. Additionally, there are concerns about the state of the Chinese economy and how that could impact long term demand. The soybean market tends to react pretty sharply to any news that could change Chinese demand. Further rains to already wet growing areas of the northern plains could keep prices slightly supported, though, as soybean planting in Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and even Michigan has been pretty difficult. We'll see what the USDA has to say today regarding progress. Soybean oil and canola futures are both lower this morning, which should make for a generally lower day across the board in the oilseed markets.
Corn is showing double digit losses this morning as the weekend rains to the Midwest are being viewed as mostly beneficial to the crop. International buyers are expecting US prices to drop even further this week with improving weather forecasts and good growing conditions, so there will likely not be much demand news to report this week. Investors continuing to liquidate their positions has prices on edge as well. We could see a surprise in the acreage report this week but the crop conditions report to be released this afternoon will likely show pretty favorable crop conditions.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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