SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 21/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 1-3 cents, choppy and mixed trade, pressured lower by HRW harvest and outside markets (Mpls Sept last trade 7.94, KC Sept 7.37 ¼)
Soybeans are 8-10 lower, old crop futures higher but new crop struggle with demand concerns and profit taking (Nov last trade 12.77 ¼)
Corn is down 2-4 cents, US weather forecasts continue to weigh on corn futures (Dec last trade 5.58 ½)
Sunflowers are unchanged to lower, soybean oil off slightly this morning but not enough to impact prices much at this point
Canola is 10-15 cents lower, selling off with soybeans, Canadian plantings
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main facility will be closed for dumping July 1st-3rd for scheduled maintenance. Offices and the Minot East and West facilities will be open during this time. Thank you for your cooperation!
*AOG Contracts*
If you have an Act of God contract with us and are/were unable to get your crop seeded, please let us know as soon as possible. Also, just a reminder, we need a copy of your FSA 578 forms on seeded and PP acres when they're available for all AOG contracts (HO Sunflowers, Victory Canola, commodity canola, flax and NuSuns). If you have any questions please let us know. Thank you!
Yesterday:
What goes up must come down and the grain futures markets were no exception to that yesterday. Profit taking hit the markets and we saw futures fall almost across the board. The US and many global stock markets were hard hit yesterday. Losses in the US markets were spurred by the Fed announcing the consideration of decreasing its bond buying program as the US economy starts recovering. Crude prices were whacked pretty hard as well, losing over three dollars/barrel. The US dollar was higher. Spring wheat and hard red winter wheat futures were the exception to that, though. After trading lower most of the session spring wheat and HRW futures found some strength and managed to close off their lows for the day, spring wheat unchanged and winter wheat down two cents. Corn, soybeans and other oilseeds did not fare so well yesterday though. Soybeans struggled with Chinese macroeconomic concerns and profit taking combined with poor export sales for the week. Prices were down 25 cents yesterday. Sunflowers also lost 25 cents in yesterday's trade and canola was down 50 cents/cwt as well. Flax was unchanged. Corn futures were down nine cents on the day with profit taking and improvements in US weather impacting new crop.
Today:
Overnight trade finished with the grain markets mostly lower and the first half hour of the day session continued that movement. However, it looks like prices are trying to work their way higher as we speak and right now futures are mixed. It looks like choppy, range bound trade is to continue for awhile with these markets with changing weather forecasts and ideas about demand. The grain markets are also looking forward to the USDA's acreage report which will be released a week from today. The US stock markets opened higher this morning after yesterday's big decline (over 300 points lost on the DOW). The US dollar is trading higher again this morning and crude prices are continuing yesterday's losses, down about 30 cents/barrel at the moment.
The wheat markets really seem to have the most news to trade off of right now and not much of it is favorable. However, spring wheat and hard red winter wheat futures are trading higher so far this morning. US harvest pressure will keep a lid on HRW gains as it progresses into areas of Kansas. I've seen some pictures of the HRW crop out of SE Kansas and it looked pretty good, so we'll see what yields have to say as harvest comes. Spring wheat may find some strength from planting issues but the market may start to relax as the crop is over 90% planted and rated 68% good to excellent - we'll see what updates the USDA has for us in Monday's weekly report. Globally the wheat crop is looking pretty good. Russia increased its 2013 grain production forecast which means that they will continue to provide stiff export competition. Some unfavorable news in the global marketplace is that Egypt, who was expected to start buying wheat again soon, said that it can hold off until December to buy anything with the current wheat stocks it has.
A major South Korean soybean user bought, for what is reportedly the second time this week, South American soybeans despite congested logistics. Tight US supplies will continue to limit our export business until new crop rolls around. The market remains worried about the final planting effort in wet northern states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota). Will the remaining 15% of the crop get seeded? As we are with wheat, we will wait and see what the USDA says Monday. Concerns about Chinese demand seem to be the forefront for soybean prices right now as the market is uncertain about macroeconomic issues and how that could impact soybean imports. It looks to be a fairly quiet finish to the week, though, as the market studies weather and worries about demand.
Corn futures are a bit lower this morning as the market focuses on weekend weather forecasts. It still looks like many areas will be warming and drying, which will benefit the developing crop for now. Some end users are bumping up their basis bids in an effort to keep old crop supply moving after the recent drop in futures stalled farmer selling. Corn remains in a weather market and it looks like we'll see pretty choppy trade continue until next Friday's acreage report. Will the USDA surprise us?
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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