SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 19/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is mixed, spring wheat up a penny, winter wheat markets down 3-5 cents, pickup in winter wheat harvest versus late spring wheat planting (Mpls Sept last trade 7.81, KC Sept 7.17 ¾)
Soybeans are down 2-4 cents, profit taking, ideas that final planting effort going well in many areas (Nov last trade 12.88)
Corn is 1-7 lower, old crop down on profit taking, new crop lower with favorable weather forecasts (July last trade 6.66 ½)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is slightly higher despite the fall in soybean futures, sunflowers probably won't do much today
Canola is unchanged, futures board lower with soybeans, but not so much that it looks to impact cash prices much
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main facility will be closed for dumping July 1st-3rd for scheduled maintenance. Offices and the Minot East and West facilities will be open during this time. Thank you for your cooperation!
*AOG Contracts*
If you have an Act of God contract with us and are/were unable to get your crop seeded, please let us know as soon as possible. Also, just a reminder, we need a copy of your FSA 578 forms on seeded and PP acres when they're available for all AOG contracts (HO Sunflowers, Victory Canola, commodity canola, flax and NuSuns). If you have any questions please let us know. Thank you!
Yesterday:
The USDA crop progress/conditions report did not have much of an impact on grain futures yesterday and grain trade was really pretty quiet. Corn saw old crop futures start out sharply higher but then relax as the day progress, finishing the day up six cents. Tight old crop stocks were enough to keep the market supported. New crop corn prices have a tough time trading higher due to the improving weather across much of the corn belt. Conditions have turned warmer and rainfall is scattered, mostly benefiting the newly planted and developing crop. Soybeans were up four cents yesterday with strong crush numbers and some planting concerns boosting trade. Soybeans were up four cents as the day finished. Canola futures saw some buying interest and worked to push cash prices higher. Flax finally decided to play catch up and we saw prices jump sharply higher. Hard red winter wheat harvest is going slower than expected which helped that market gain six cents in yesterday's session. Spring wheat, despite planting being a bit behind, struggled to trade higher and was a penny lower yesterday.
Today:
Grain markets are mixed with soybean oil and spring wheat trading higher and mostly everything else posting losses at the moment. It seems that we could have some profit taking hitting the markets as a lack of fresh fundamental news lets things drift lower as well. Outside markets are somewhat favorable with the US dollar slightly lower and crude prices up about seven cents/barrel. Weather looks mostly crop favorable with most areas staying dry but some forecast for heavy rains which will delay soybean planting. The grain markets keep talking about the June 28th acreage report and are very curious as to what changes could be made, especially for corn and soybean acres.
Ideas that hard red winter wheat harvest will pick up this week as conditions in the southern plains dry out are weighing on the winter wheat futures markets. Currently, hard red winter wheat is a few cents lower as we price in harvest progress. The soft white wheat market could be struggling with news of Asian buyers continuing to be cautious about US purchases. Taiwan is looking to buy wheat and has specifically stated to buyers that it does not want wheat from Oregon, for fear of receiving GMO wheat. Spring wheat prices are a bit higher this morning as that market continues to find light support from a late planting season. However, the USDA said that as of June 15th 92% of the US crop is seeded (97% average), which may help alleviate some concerns about US production. North Dakota planting is behind but with global wheat crops doing well overall it will be tough for North Dakota's spring wheat issues to have a huge market impact. Additionally, the US crop is rated 68% good to excellent, which raises hopes for good yields.
Soybeans are seeing old crop getting hit by profit taking this morning and new crop prices slightly lower with continued planting progress. A few northern soybean growing states (North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa) are forecast for heavy rains late this week and into the weekend which will delay planting progress and could help provide some support to prices. In a weather market, these are the things that we watch. The USDA pegged US soybean planting 85% complete as of Sunday which was just behind what the market was expecting. We'll see what Monday brings but it looks like in most areas that planting progress should have picked up again this week.
The corn market has a tough time trading higher as weather forecasts look to be mostly crop favorable. Good weather keeps new crop prices on edge and old crop find some strength from tight supplies and slow farmer selling. This morning, though, old crop contracts are working against some profit taking which is keeping prices a little bit lower. The US crop is rated 64% good to excellent and that will keep new crop on edge as well, as that is a pretty good rating to start out with.
There really is not much fresh news to guide futures trade right now. We're still all about weather and planting/crop conditions, so prices will continue to be sensitive to changes in forecasts.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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