SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 14/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is 1-5 lower, winter wheat markets lower with harvest and favorable growing conditions, Mpls holds strength on planting delays (Mpls July last trade 8.12 ¼, KC July 7.14)
Soybeans are up 3-9 cents, tight old crop supplies have that market higher, new crop marginally higher due to rainy weekend forecasts (Nov last trade 13.02 ¾)
Corn is 1-3 lower, ideal crop development weather on a 95% planted crop has futures on edge (July last trade 6.47 ¼)
Sunflowers are up 5-10 cents, with stronger bean oil and crude prices we may see some strength for sunflowers today
Canola is 5-10 higher, following a stronger soybean complex, crude prices, helps canola find a break from trading lower
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main facility will be closed for dumping July 1st-3rd for scheduled maintenance. Offices and the Minot East and West facilities will be open during this time. Thank you for your cooperation!
*AOG Contracts*
If you have an Act of God contract with us and are/were unable to get your crop seeded, please let us know as soon as possible. Also, just a reminder, we need a copy of your FSA 578 forms on seeded and PP acres when they're available for all AOG contracts (HO Sunflowers, Victory Canola, commodity canola, flax and NuSuns). If you have any questions please let us know. Thank you!
Yesterday:
Speculative selling hit the grain futures markets yesterday and left us with lower prices in the row crops. Soybeans saw a pretty good sell off yesterday and finished the day with cash prices 14 cents lower. Profit taking and unfavorable outside markets are being cited for lower soybean prices. Corn futures took cue from a falling soybean market and crop favorable weather forecasts. Old crop prices were down seven cents by the end of the day yesterday. Canola took cue from a falling soybean complex and finished the day 15 cents lower. Birdfood sunflowers were higher as demand in that market remains spiked for the time being. Wheat prices shrugged off the falling row crop markets and worked their way higher yesterday. Spring wheat was up six cents on planting delays and hard red winter wheat was up only two cents as harvest pressure limited gains.
Today:
Grain markets are mixed as we head into the weekend. Old crop corn and soybean futures are higher with tight supplies but new crop are lower due to strong crop prospects. Wheat prices are lower this morning as US conditions are favorable for those crops as well. Spring wheat again limits its losses due to planting delays. The US dollar is higher this morning, but crude prices are as well (up about $1.20/barrel). As like last Friday, grain futures are focused on weekend forecasts and getting prices set that reflect the interpretation of those forecasts. For now it looks like weekend weather is considered to be mostly crop favorable.
The winter wheat markets are really struggling right now. Hard red winter wheat is seeing harvest progress pick up steam and the market is expecting the USDA to say that harvest is about 20% complete in Monday's weekly crop progress report. Harvest has reportedly moved into Kansas. The soft red winter wheat market is experiencing ideal growing conditions and a lack of demand due to the GMO scare. Indonesia is the latest country to announce that it will be keeping an eye on US wheat imports and will halt if GMO wheat is found. Argentina is expected to increase its wheat acres this year, which will only add weight to the global balance sheet and help negate any concerns about US production issues. Bids are rolling futures to the September futures month - no surprise as the spring wheat market is inverted and it is mid-June.
The soybean market is seeing some buying interest in old crop futures after the recent sell off seen this week. Most of the buying is considered to be profit taking after hefty selling over the past couple of days. However, new crop futures are having a tough time maintaining gains and are trading lower. It looks like the market is pretty confident about the US crop being planted, even if there are some rains in the forecast for some growing areas. We'll see what the USDA has to say Monday about progress. Canola futures were recovering with a higher soybean complex but now that new crop soybean futures have started to struggle we're seeing canola prices back off as well. Favorable weather in Canada, a major canola producing country, adds weight to things as well.
Corn prices look to drift lower into the weekend as rain is considered a good thing for the newly planted crop. Part of the reason for the selloff in the corn market is the fact that funds are decreasing their long (bought) positions and selling them off. The market is no longer concerned about acres as less than 5% of the US did not get seeded. I'm curious to see what the USDA will say in regards to planting progress on Monday but either way, the market is confident acres are in. As far as acres go the market is waiting for the June 28th USDA acreage report. Now the focus is on crop conditions, which are expected to improve in Monday's report. Producers are hanging onto their old crop corn which is why we're seeing the July futures month a bit higher this morning.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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