SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 10/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:25 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 2-5 cents, following weaker row crops, ideas that ND could get some last minute spring wheat acres seeded in areas (Mpls July last trade 8.20 ¼, KC July 7.31 ½)
Soybeans are 10-14 lower, old crop really struggles with selling pressure, new crop lower as well due to planting progress (Nov last trade 13.18 ¾)
Corn is down 10-12 cents, planting and conditions expected to be pretty good this week, weekend rains not as aggressive as Friday's forecasts anticipated (July last trade 6.57 ½)
Sunflowers are down 10-15 cents, bean oil and crude prices are lower, which do not help out the sunflower market much
Canola is down another 20-25 cents, downward correction continues to hammer futures
*AOG Contracts*
If you have an Act of God contract with us and are/were unable to get your crop seeded, please let us know as soon as possible. Also, just a reminder, we need a copy of your FSA 578 forms on seeded and PP acres when they're available for all AOG contracts (HO Sunflowers, Victory Canola, commodity canola, flax and NuSuns). If you have any questions please let us know. Thank you!
Friday:
Corn and soybeans saw higher prices on Friday as the tight old crop supply story worked its way back into prices. Soybeans led the way higher with the November contract gaining 25 cents . New crop prices were supported by strong demand and delayed planting concerns spurred by wet weekend forecasts. Corn saw pretty much the same story for Friday's trading session with old crop prices gaining only three cents, though. Weekend rains in the forecast had corn prices a bit stronger in Friday's session. Wheat prices tried to trade higher with the row crops but couldn't hold gains. Spring wheat is dealing with some planting concerns but prices still finished a penny lower. Hard red winter wheat was seasonally lower with harvest pressure and prices were down three cents.
Today:
The tone is weaker today for the grain futures as weekend rains were not as bad as Friday's forecasts said they would be across many of the major US corn and soybean growing areas. This has led to less concern about planting delays. Corn and soybean futures are both posting double digit losses at the moment and wheat is following the lead. Outside markets are also not supportive for grain futures as the US dollar is higher and crude prices are about 65 cents/barrel lower. Weaker than expected economic data out of China over the weekend may also be adding weight, especially to the soybean market. The USDA will release its weekly crop progress/conditions report this afternoon at three and its monthly S&D report on Wednesday morning.
Not a whole lot of progress is expected to be shown in this week's report for spring wheat planting, especially in the top producing state of ND. The market is expected to see spring wheat at, overall, 85% seeded but ND will likely fall short of its average. There are thoughts that some areas could allow for some late planting this week but our area is not likely to be one of them. Weaker row crops are also contributing to lower wheat prices. Hard red winter wheat futures are falling with harvest pressure as progress keeps moving forward. GMO wheat concerns are still limiting demand from Asian buyers which could be weighing on wheat futures a bit as well this morning.
Soybean planting is expected to be at 70-75% complete this week, up from last week's 57% complete. This week is expected to allow for pretty good progress as well as weather has turned favorable across major US growing areas. Prices are sharply lower this morning and giving up about half of what they gained on Friday. This is just what happens when we're trading weather. Prices are higher when forecasts are bad and lower when those bad forecasts are not realized or when they turn more favorable. News that Argentine farmers are going on a selling strike to protest agriculture policy could be favorable - but it's not likely that a week's halt in selling will do a whole lot to prices. Canola futures weakness continues as the overbought futures market works its way back to a level that the market is more comfortable with - a falling soybean complex does not help much either.
It will be interesting to see what happens to sunflower planting progress this afternoon. Not much is likely to be made. South Dakota planting is reportedly going quite well but in North Dakota we're really not able to get the crop planted right now. How will the market react to lower than intended acres in North Dakota?
Corn prices are also posting some double digit losses this morning. Old crop futures are down only nine cents instead of new crop's 13 cent lower move. The market is lower due to weekend weather not being as wet as forecast on Friday. The USDA is expected to report US corn planting at 95% complete, meaning that planting concerns across the US are all but erased. Conditions are expected to stay unchanged or nearly unchanged at last week's 63% good to excellent. Last week's weather was not spectacular for crop development so an increase in the crop rating is not expected. However, this week's forecasts could change that.
Other than weather there is not a whole lot to drive grain futures prices this morning and it looks like for the near term we'll see prices subject to changes in forecast.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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