SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Jun 7/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 3-5 cents, taking cue from higher row crops, winter wheat harvest pressure could limit gains (Mpls July last trade 8.23 ½, KC July 7.41)
Soybeans are 10-20 higher, old crop not gaining quite as much but new crop puts in a pretty good rally this morning (Nov last trade 13.25 ½)
Corn is up 7-9 cents, borrowing strength from soybeans as there's little news to drive corn futures higher on their own (July last trade 6.63 ½)
Sunflowers are 0-5 higher, with strengthening soybean complex, bean oil action fairly quiet so sunflowers may not do much today
Canola is 5-10 higher, futures recovering a little today after recent, strong selloff
*AOG Contracts*
If you have an Act of God contract with us and are/were unable to get your crop seeded, please let us know as soon as possible. Also, just a reminder, we need a copy of your FSA 578 forms on seeded and PP acres when they're available for all AOG contracts (HO Sunflowers, Victory Canola, commodity canola, flax and NuSuns). If you have any questions please let us know. Thank you!
Yesterday:
Grain markets were mixed yesterday due to light volume and a lack of a whole lot of fresh news. Grains spent the day on the defensive and struggled to finish higher. Soybeans started the day out lower but managed to work their way higher as the market is all about weather and acres and seems to not be able to make up its mind as to which way to trade the news. Corn was mixed as well yesterday, finishing the day up three cents. Export sales for corn were pretty disappointing which really put some pressure on prices. Canola continued its selloff yesterday, which is now being considered a long overdue market correction to an overbought futures situation. Wheat prices were choppy also yesterday. Spring wheat finished higher due to planting concerns but hard red winter wheat was a nickel lower as seasonal harvest pressure takes a toll on prices. The US dollar was sharply lower yesterday due to less than favorable US economic data.
Today:
The grain markets are mostly higher to start out this morning but seem to be losing some of their steam that they finished the overnight session with. For what it's worth - the US dollar is recovering a little this morning while crude prices are off about 30 cents/barrel. The market is all about weather right now and forecasts are so mixed and jumbled from day to day that the grain futures can't keep up when it comes to pricing. For now the forecasts look a little bit wetter heading into the weekend so that's where we're getting our strength from today. Additionally, as price stabilization yesterday has likely helped today's upward momentum.
US wheat prices continue to have a tough time to put in much of an upward move. It seems that favorable global weather conditions are enough to keep US wheat prices in check, especially when you consider that it's hard red winter wheat harvest time and prices typically see seasonal pressure. Also keeping the US markets from lacking direction are demand concerns/exports due to the soft wheat GMO finding in Oregon. Despite early concerns, Saskatchewan is now reporting that it is nearly 85% complete with its spring wheat planting. Of course, it should be noted, Saskatchewan farmers along the North Dakota border are having a tough time getting their spring wheat seeded, how unexpected. Today wheat prices will look to row crops for direction. Spring wheat may find additional strength from planting delays while hard red winter wheat will fight off harvest pressure.
New crop soybeans are really doing quite well today with November futures up about 20 cents right now. It's all about speculation about acres and the weather. How many more acres will switch to soybeans from corn? How many acres will not get planted due to wet weather? Forecasts over the weekend do not look favorable for planting and that's where prices are finding some of their support from. However, we need to be careful as soybean futures could easily work themselves back to an overbought situation which could result in a market correction. We'll know a lot more Monday after we see what weekend forecasts do. Tight old crop stocks will keep the August futures supported, but right now the focus and news is primarily on new crop.
July corn futures are a bit lower this morning while all other contracts are trading about a nickel higher at the moment. Old crop futures may be having a tough time due to ideas that the US will import South American corn to cover tight old crop supplies. New crop corn is borrowing strength from the soybean market and that's about the only thing that seems to be keeping prices higher right now. The market is comfortable about planting progress and warmer temperatures in the forecast, if realized, will help the developing crop. Some concerns about demand could also come from ideas that feed users will be switching to wheat as prices decrease due to harvest movement and away from corn as supplies are tight.
Have a great weekend -
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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