SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 29/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is mixed, winter wheat markets lower with looming harvest but spring wheat higher due to planting concerns and thoughts of acreage losses (Mpls July last trade 8.08 ¾, KC July 7.41)
Soybeans are down 6-10 cents, profit taking after yesterday's sharp gains, planting concerns may help limit new crop losses (August last trade 14.24 ½)
Corn is -1 to +5, new crop stronger with wet weather generating planting concerns (July last trade 6.64 ¾)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, bean oil falls off with soybeans, crude
Canola is 20-25 cents lower, taking cue from soybean complex and crude futures
Yesterday:
Row crops, especially soybeans, had a pretty good day yesterday as the market focused on weekend rain and planting delays. Funds ran with the news and became strong buyers of soybean futures which pushed prices up 31 cents on the day. New crop lead the way higher and old crop futures tagged along for the ride. The same was the case in the corn market yesterday as new crop led the way higher and pulled old crop up nine cents for the day. Canola and sunflower prices were higher as well, following a stronger soybean complex. Wheat prices attempted to follow stronger row crops but really got off to a pretty quiet start to the week. Hard red winter wheat futures were three cents lower on old crop for the day and spring wheat finished with cash prices unchanged.
Today:
Soybeans are giving back some of yesterday's gains in what looks like profit taking. Old crop futures are being hit a bit harder than new crop at the moment. Bean oil and canola futures are also lower this morning, making it look like oilseeds won't have a great day today. Corn is mixed with the July contract four cents lower but all other futures are a few cents higher. Spring wheat futures are showing strength due to planting worries but the winter wheat markets are sagging again this morning. The market has little to focus on other than weather and the USDA's crop progress/conditions report that was released yesterday afternoon. Outside markets are favorable with crude prices about 15 cents/barrel higher and the US dollar lower.
As I said above, spring wheat futures are the only wheat market in positive territory this morning. The market is starting to become a bit concerned about potential cuts to ND acres due to a late, cool and wet spring. ND spring wheat is, according to the UDSA, 62% planted which is a 12% jump from last week but 19% behind the five year average. Overall, though, spring wheat planting pace seems to be doing ok. The USDA pegged the US at 79% planted vs an 86% average and 67% planted last week. There is little news to drive the winter wheat markets higher as harvest is quickly approaching. Crop issues in the US are likely well factored into prices and become less of a concern as crop favorable news from other parts of the globe seems to come in almost daily. US hard red winter wheat condition ratings were unchanged at 31% good to excellent. Rains to HRW growing areas were disappointing but the market does not seem to care at the moment as the market starts to turn its focus to the coming harvest.
Barley planting in the US seems to be going well at 78% complete, which is just behind the average of 87% done at this time. The weekly jump, though, was only eight percent. North Dakota barley planting made some progress this week and is reportedly 49% complete, which is well below the 79% five year average. I think our area is closer to the five year average when it comes to barley planting. Larry Aberle in Mohall figures growers around there are as much as 70% done with their barley planting and I know of several growers in the Minot area who got theirs planted in our first big window. However, there are some who are struggling with wet conditions and have yet to get theirs planted as well.
New crop soybeans are resisting selling pressure a bit better than old crop as the market focuses on slow planting progress. The USDA put US planting progress at 44% done which is below the five year average of 61% complete. North Dakota soybeans are reportedly 33% complete (19% last week) compared to the five year of 58%. However, there is still some time to make good progress on soybean planting. News that China cancelled a 2012-13 purchase of US soybeans could be adding weight to the old crop futures months as well.
Sunflowers are at the mercy of a falling soybean oil board this morning. Planting progress, though, is going quite slowly as that market cannot escape the wet weather either. Overall sunflowers are 9% planted which is 17% behind the five year average. North Dakota sunflowers are only 11% planted, well behind the five year of 35% complete. There were not planting progress numbers reported last week for sunflowers. With less corn acres being planted in ND due to the poor weather we can probably expect to see a bump in sunflower acres as those are a good late planted option.
Wet weather to the corn belt should be helping prices in that market too. New crop prices are slightly higher whereas old crop are struggling. Crop planting progress is nearly on pace at 86% done (71% last week) versus the 90% average. Looking through the state breakdown there are several states that are actually ahead of their average planting pace. The only state that really jumped out at being significantly behind was Wisconsin. North Dakota corn planting is 10% behind average pace at 72% complete, making an 11% jump for the week. The market is really starting to wonder how many acres are lost due to the spring and those estimates are easily climbing over a million acres. Ukraine is estimated to have a bigger corn crop this year which may also weigh on things as we move forward.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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