SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 23/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:30 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 3-5 cents, winter wheat markets lead way higher as trade becomes concerned about weather conditions for US crop (Mpls July last trade 8.11, KC July 7.46 ½)
Soybeans are down 2-5 cents, strong export sales should help support but prices are lower with technical selling anyway (July last trade 14.90)
Corn is 3-5 lower, profit taking and resuming fieldwork have prices struggling again this morning (July last trade 6.53 ½)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, bean oil lower this morning, sharply lower crude doesn't help either
Canola is off 20-25 cents, futures sharply lower with falling US markets this morning
Yesterday:
What looked to be a choppy trading day yesterday turned out to be a pretty decent day of gains for most of the grain markets. Corn and soybean prices skyrocketed higher with some buying interest hitting the futures markets. Corn may have also found strength from strong weekly ethanol production numbers. Either way, it was a good day as old crop prices finished the day 18 cents/bushel higher. Soybeans followed suit and some late session buying interest really worked to push prices higher. Taking cue from a higher corn market, old crop soybeans were 16 cents higher for the day. Canola and sunflower prices both finished a dime higher with the surge in the soybean market. Wheat prices did not perform quite so well. Winter wheat futures were higher with hard red winter wheat finishing the day up a nickel. Spring wheat futures did not do so well and finished the day a nickel lower.
Today:
Grain futures are again choppy and mixed this morning. Wheat futures are higher with the winter wheat markets leading the way and spring wheat following reluctantly. Corn and soybean futures are currently mixed but coming off their lows and looking like they might start trading in higher territory. Outside markets are mixed with the US dollar sharply lower and crude prices lower as well. Crude prices are not doing well today as futures are down about $1.50/bushel at the moment. Weakness in the corn and soybean markets seems to be coming from speculative profit taking but I'm not sure how long that's going to hold. These markets will continue to focus on weather and US planting progress as we move forward. Markets will not be open Sunday night or Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday. Trade will resume Monday evening at seven PM CDT.
Hard red winter wheat weather concerns seem to be the main focus for the wheat markets this morning as winter wheat futures are again leading the wheat markets higher today. Hot, dry forecasts look to continue across much of the US southern plains which has the potential to further damage the US crop. Global weather is also a major factor and the trade will be paying attention to anything major. Things seem to be picking up a little on the global export front as every day there seems to be fresh trade news. US export sales for the week were pretty dang good at 952.6 TMT, well above estimates that ranged from 400-700 thousand metric MT Other than that there is not much fresh news for the wheat markets and basis values are remaining pretty quiet for now.
Speaking of basis, soybean basis has not been doing so well this week. Values have been crumbling as processors have made some significant purchases recently. Now that processors are getting supply, they're seeing less reason to pay so much to get their hands on soybeans, so basis values are relaxing. However, the trade will keep an eye on the availability of South American soybeans as port strikes in Argentina and Brazil are slowing shipments. Export sales for soybeans were great this week and well above estimates that ranged from 400-800 TMT. Sales came in at 1022.4 TMT. Canola, sunflower and flax prices all seem to be at the mercy of the soybean market and subject to any of its price fluctuations.
The corn market did well with old crop futures prices yesterday and likely had a couple reasons. First off, weekly ethanol production numbers picked up from the prior week. Secondly, export sales made to China were announced yesterday and could have provided some support. Today, though, prices are mixed to mostly lower. Sharply lower crude oil prices and general profit taking/fund selling are resulting in lower corn prices this morning. Fieldwork should be picking up across areas of the US that didn't receive rain or had very little. Decent progress is expected to be made for US corn planting this week. Export sales for the week weren't too exciting at 446.2 TMT, in line with expectations that ranged from 200-500 TMT.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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