SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 22/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:25 AM CDT:
Wheat is 0-4 higher, winter wheat supported by dry weather forecasts, spring wheat struggles with corn despite planting delays (Mpls July last trade 8.13 ¼, KC July 7.41 ½)
Soybeans are up 0-4 cents, not much happening, market could use some fresh news to guide prices, old crop struggles after yesterday's rally (July last trade 14.75)
Corn is 2-4 higher, looks to be a choppy trading day, market focuses on weather forecasts (July last trade 6.38)
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, soybean oil slightly higher with soybeans, struggling crude futures will limit gains
Canola is mixed, rapid Canadian planting progress could be pressuring prices
Yesterday:
Grain futures finished the day mixed yesterday as the markets could not quite make up their mind. Corn futures fell to speculative liquidation after the release of the USDA's planting progress report put US planting at close to on pace, making record gains for the week. Old crop corn prices finished the day nine cents lower. Soybeans did much better yesterday as tight old crop supplies supported the market and prices finished the day 13 cents higher. Canola and sunflowers followed suit and posted marginal gains as well. Wheat was mixed with spring wheat up two cents and hard red winter wheat down seven cents. Wet conditions to ND, spurring planting delays, were mostly ignored and prices followed corn.
Today:
Grain markets are mixed to slightly higher this morning as a lack of fresh, fundamental news has futures uncertain of which direction to trade. Outside markets are mixed with the US dollar slightly lower and crude prices down almost a dollar/barrel at the moment. It looks to be a fairly uneventful day for us in the grain markets. Weather forecasts are the main market movers. Wet weather could help new crop corn and soybean prices but hot and dry forecasts dominate for much of the Midwest (with the exception of the northern areas) which will benefit the newly planted crop and allow for further planting progress in many areas.
Winter wheat prices are being held up today by hot and dry forecasts for the hard red winter wheat growing areas of the US. Spring wheat is struggling to find gains today which is a bit surprising considering the planting delays in North Dakota and Minnesota. Globally news remains unfavorable for the wheat markets. The trade is fairly confident that we're going to see large global production this year which will also result in a substantial increase to the global carryout. Reports from Argentina that we could see a substantial (I'm hearing 40%) increase in wheat acres due to government tax incentives could also weigh on things. Russia has been taking over the global export market by offering out wheat cheaper than everybody else is. Canada is also saying that Manitoba, Alberta and Saskatchewan are 45-50% planted which will help ease concerns about Canadian planting concerns that have been around for some months now due to large snowfall amounts.
There is really little to talk about with the soybean market today. There are reports of Chinese cancellations of purchases of soyoil from Argentina around this morning but that's about it. Right now old crop futures are a bit lower and new crop futures are about six cents higher. The birdfood sunflower market remains pretty strong as buyers look to cover nearby needs. Questions about new crop have been abundant as buyers would like to get some coverage out in those months. However, farmer selling of sunflowers in general has been pretty slow. Perhaps after the crop is planted we will see some new crop pricing but until then I imagine things will be fairly quiet.
As I mentioned above, corn emergence should benefit from warm weather that is in the forecast for much of the eastern corn belt. Additional planting progress should be made this week across many areas that didn't receive as much rainfall as thought. Planting progress/conditions reports from the USDA will come out on Tuesday next week due to Monday's Memorial Day holiday. Corn trade may chop its way higher today but there is little news to support higher prices as there is not much going on.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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