SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 17/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 9:00 AM CDT:
Wheat is unchanged to 3 cents lower, following corn in a fairly quiet trading session (Mpls July last trade 8.04, KC July 7.41 ¼)
Soybeans are higher on old crop and lower on new crop, old crop tight supplies and new crop planting progress (July last trade 14.28 ¾)
Corn is down 2-4 cents, US planting progress made good pace this week (July last trade 6.41 ¼)
Sunflowers are unchanged, bean oil market is quiet with mixed soybeans, slightly higher crude is supportive
Canola is up 15-20 cents, futures board sharply higher, perhaps a bit concerned about Canadian planting
Yesterday:
Grain futures were a bit mixed yesterday with funds and weather making for muddy futures price action. Spring wheat managed to finish the day a penny higher but hard red winter wheat futures were down about eight cents on the day. Improving hard red winter wheat conditions and potential for increased Russian exports had prices on edge. Corn took cue from a falling wheat market and finished the day down nine cents. Good planting progress across the US combined with good old crop exports also pressured corn prices. The soybean market was boosted higher by 15 cents yesterday due to strong soymeal exports. There may have been a bit of a "buy beans, sell corn" spread mentality going on yesterday as well. Canola and sunflowers were quiet with prices changing a nickel on both boards.
Today:
It looks to be another fairly quiet day in the grain markets today. News is a bit scarce and grain futures really are not doing much so far this morning. Outside markets are mixed with the US dollar trading higher and crude prices up about 80 cents/barrel at the moment. Rains to the Midwest are forecast in the 1-5 day forecast with things drying out in the 6-10 day forecast. Planting should slow down by Sunday in many areas of the US due to rains, but the market is expecting to see big progress numbers reported by the USDA on Monday afternoon.
Wheat futures are quietly following corn this morning as there is little other fresh news to guide price direction. Some weakness could come from news that Russia is forecast for rains and also has some exportable supplies for the May/June time slots. US hard red winter wheat growing areas could see improving conditions with recent rain forecasts which may be why HRW losses are a bit more severe than those of the spring wheat market. Basis values look to drop again today as demand quiets down and the market anticipates heavy movement after planting.
Old crop soybeans are a bit higher this morning after trading higher in the overnight session. Prices are weakening, though, as it seems soybeans are having a tough time hanging onto gains with falling wheat and corn markets. Brazilian port strikes are reportedly continuing, which may be delaying the exports of soybeans out of Brazil and sending buyers to the US to buy what's left of the US crop. Follow through buying from yesterday may also be helping things out a little bit. There are also hopes that the fast planting progress in the US could mean less acres of corn being switched to soybeans. Planting progress could be reported at as much as 20-25% complete on Monday afternoon.
Speaking of planting progress - many in the market believe that we could see progress as much as 65-70% complete in Monday's report. If reported at 70% complete..that would be a jump of 42% in one week, the biggest weekly increase in planting progress in recorded history. It's pretty aggressive but the market obviously feels it's attainable. Old crop prices could be finding some support from the fact that it's tough to buy corn from farmers when they're focused on planting. Old crop US supplies are tight and we need product to get to end users. New crop buying interest is limited, reportedly due to ideas that the US is going to plant a record crop this year and prices will get a bit cheaper.
Have a great weekend -
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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