SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 15/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
[cid:image001.jpg@01CD002F.571BB930]
Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 2-5 cents, following lower corn and soybean prices, little fresh news to provide direction, higher US dollar unfavorable (Mpls July last trade 8.08 ½, KC July 7.63 ½)
Soybeans are down 5-7 on old crop and up 0-1 cent on new crop, higher US dollar and planting moving along (July last trade 14.09 ½)
Corn is down 4-6 cents, good planting progress expected this week, demand goes elsewhere as US old crop supplies are tight (July last trade 6.46 ¾)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, birdfood demand strong and will limit losses but weak soybean oil may impact nusun prices
Canola is unchanged, futures board slightly higher at the moment but could relax with crude and the soybean complex, fairly quiet day for canola so far
Yesterday:
It was a fairly quiet day in the grain markets all session yesterday as there was little fresh news to really do much for prices. It seems that most grains fell to profit taking pressure, with prices struggling to make up their mind as to what to do with good planting pace mixed with forecasts for rain over the weekend across many major US growing areas. Corn finished the day down three cents with general profit taking being the reason for lower prices. Soybeans were a nickel lower with old crop falling due to profit taking as well. New crop prices did better as US acreage uncertainties supported prices. Wheat prices were mixed with spring wheat finishing the day down a penny and hard red winter wheat up a penny. The market is expecting to see huge spring wheat planting progress this week which is more than likely the reason for lower prices yesterday. Winter wheat crop condition uncertainty had that market supported.
Today:
Grain futures are mostly lower this morning, succumbing to what seems to be additional profit taking in the wake of good planting progress across much of the US this week. Additionally, outside markets are unfavorable this morning with the US dollar higher due to good US economic data and crude prices are about $1.40/barrel lower at the moment. Investors seem to be selling out of their commodities and investing their money into the US stock markets which have been performing quite well lately. Other than planting and weather there is not much fresh news to report for the grain markets this morning.
The wheat markets are again taking cue from the row crops this morning and since corn and soybeans are lower, so are wheat prices. There is not much new or exciting news to discuss for wheat this morning. Uncertainty about weather in the Black Sea Region could provide some support but dry one week and wet the next does not make for much to worry about just yet. The market will be keeping an eye on us winter wheat conditions as there are some worries about disease and production in general. However, those concerns are not enough to keep prices from falling this morning. Decent spring wheat planting progress is expected over this week which is pressuring that market lower today as well.
Soybeans are mixed this morning with old crop prices lower and new crop prices higher. Old crop prices are likely struggling with profit taking and new crop is probably finding its strength from slight worries about the US crop getting planted. However, I think new crop soybeans should probably be more focused on the late planted corn crop and ideas that we could see US corn acres switch to soybeans if it gets to be too late.
Birdfood sunflowers continue to climb up as demand seems to spike all at one time. When we see this in the sunflower market it is typically short lived - so if you're hanging onto some DP sunflowers or have some out on the farm still it may be a good time to think about getting those priced. Once buyers satisfy their immediate demand we will see prices relax back to more comfortable levels. This seems to be the pattern that birdfood buyers have been in this year.
The corn market is expecting to see good US planting progress this week which is part of the reason for lower prices this morning. General profit taking also has something to do with the lower prices we're seeing on the futures board this morning. Weather will remain the main factor in this market, though, as we move forward. The weekend rains across the corn belt will benefit the newly planted crop but will prevent progress from being made on getting more in the ground. The US seems to be scaring off export demand as old crop supplies are tight and prices are high. Japan reportedly bought corn to fill immediate needs from South Africa as US supplies are tight and South American logistics are messy.
It looks to be a mostly lower day today due mostly to profit taking. Continue to keep an eye on weather for price direction.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
[image003.jpg]
1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more then their original investment. In no event should the content of this website be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from the author(s) that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Information provided on this website is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.
Information on this page is derived from third parties and is deemed to be reliable. STAT Communications Ltd. accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or inaccuracies in any of the material presented on this web site. Opinions expressed on this web site are those of the respective individuals and/or institutions and do not represent the opinions of STAT Communications Ltd. or its staff or its management.
Only active subscribers can read all of this article.
If you are a subscriber, please log into the website.
If you are not a subscriber, click here to subscribe to this edition of the STAT website and to learn more about becoming a subscriber.
