SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 14/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 0-2 cents, little fresh news to drive prices higher, corn futures begin to relax, so does wheat (Mpls July last trade 8.12 ¼, KC July 7.63 ¼)
Soybeans are down 2-5 cents, profit taking after strong gains yesterday (July last trade 14.12 ¼)
Corn is mixed with the July contract lower but September on a penny or so higher, slow planting pace creates concerns about tight supplies before new crop (July last trade 6.52 ¼)
Sunflowers are down 5-10 cents, bean oil is off with crude and soybeans this morning, keeping a lid on sunflower prices
Canola is unchanged, futures are quiet so far this morning but could come under pressure with a falling soybean complex
Yesterday:
Markets started out the day pretty quietly but as the session progressed corn worked to lead up quite the rally. It seems that tight US old crop supplies for corn and soybeans combined with short covering, slow planting and quiet farmer selling had prices excited. Additionally, forecasts for more rain to US corn and soybean growing areas had prices a bit higher as well. Corn finished the day with cash prices up 19 cents and soybeans saw old crop up 20 cents for the day. Canola and sunflowers followed the stronger soybean market, both posting double digit gains for the day. Wheat futures were higher with the row crops yesterday and we saw spring wheat gain four cents and hard red winter wheat was up eight cents. Dry HRW weather may have been a contributing factor to higher prices as well.
Today:
Again we are seeing grain futures start out with a fairly quiet overnight session. As we reopen after the midmorning break, though, futures are coming back a bit lower with soybeans being the biggest loser. Soybeans have taken a sharp turn and are down about a dime right now. Old crop corn is down a nickel at the moment but new crop prices are losing less than a penny. Wheat prices are mixed to a few cents lower. Rain events are in the forecast for US growing areas which may lead to additional planting delays. Outside markets are unfavorable with the US dollar higher and crude prices down about 25 cents/barrel.
Spring wheat basis is fairly quiet and seems that it could head lower if selling were to pick up, which it just may do shortly after planting season is over. There is not a lot of fresh news for the wheat markets this morning which is leaving prices at the mercy of the row crops so far today. The USDA's crop progress report didn't offer much news for hard red winter wheat as conditions were left unchanged at 32% good to excellent. The US spring wheat crop was, as of Sunday evening, 43% planted which is 20% behind the five year average and well behind last year's pace of 92% complete. ND spring wheat is 26% planted, about half of average pace of 53%. The US barley crop is 55% planted, which is not too far off from the 63% average. ND barley planting is behind though at 11% complete versus a 48% average. Good progress will be reported next week as this week is a big one for North Dakota.
If you can believe it, there is even less news for the soybean market than there is for the wheat markets right now. Prices are being hit heavily by what I can only guess is profit taking after strong gains realized yesterday. The US soybean crop was reportedly 6% planted according to the USDA as of Sunday evening - which is a bit behind the 24% average pace. ND soybean planting progress is doing ok, considering, at 3% complete compared to the 14% average pace. Struggling soybean oil and crude oil markets will limit gains in all oilseed markets today as well.
The corn market should be finding some support from continued slow US planting and potential for further delays due to rain events in the forecast for later this week and early next week. However, old crop prices are struggling and new crop prices are bouncing around either side of unchanged. The market is seeing some profit taking after yesterday's gains but there still seems to be enough to keep prices supported from falling off too far. The USDA pegged US planting at 28% complete as of Sunday evening, well behind the average pace of 65% complete. Good progress is expected again this week, though, and we could see as much as a 30% jump in progress for Monday's report. North Dakota corn planting was, as of Sunday, 18% complete compared to a 43% average. There are thoughts that corn supplies could get really tight this summer with the late planting season which could keep some support to those futures contracts. The USDA seems to think China will have a smaller corn crop this year but China is anticipating a rise in acres, but long term demand for corn looks strong.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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