SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 6/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is 7-14 cents lower, HRW leads way lower despite expectations for conditions to decline in this afternoon's report, spring wheat losses manageable in comparison (Mpls July last trade 8.12, KC July 7.64 ¼)
Soybeans are down 6-10 cents, following a sharply lower corn market, ideas that not as many US acres will switch from corn to beans support prices (July last trade 13.83 ¼)
Corn is down 14-18 cents, improved planting outlook and weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks are hammering prices this morning (July last trade 6.46 ¾)
Sunflowers are unchanged, soybean oil is quiet this morning but could weaken with the soybean market
Canola is unchanged to a nickel lower, futures off slightly this morning but could weaken with crude and soybeans
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main location will be closed for dumping through May 10th for maintenance. The office is open during this time. Thank you and please call if you have any questions!
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by April 30th. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space limitations at any given location.
Friday:
CHS Hedging wished to send over holiday greetings on Friday as this is what it looked like at our corporate office in Inver Grove Heights, MN on May 3rd.
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For once it was someone else getting the snow while we enjoyed much more seasonal weather. Grain futures were mixed on Friday with soybeans finishing the day posting double digit gains and wheat/corn lower for the day. Soybeans were higher on hopes that corn will get planted in the US and less acres will switch to soybeans. The news had soybeans up 15 cents. Sunflowers followed the soybean market and gained 20 cents. Corn did not do so well and we saw nearby prices finish a penny lower as futures just faded as the session progressed and stuck to lower prices. Wheat futures sharply lower with KC hard red winter wheat leading the way down. The HRW tour decreased yield estimates by about one bushel/acre from last year, the market was expecting to see more than that. Spring wheat futures were lower with HRW and finished the day down 11 cents. The Dow hit record highs on Friday, crossing 15,000 for the first time, on favorable jobs data.
Today:
Grain markets are lower this morning with corn leading the way on down. Improved weather forecasts and better than expected weekend weather have the market thinking the corn crop will get planted, which has corn posting double digit losses right now and taking the wheat and soybean markets with it. Outside markets are also unfavorable with the US dollar higher and crude prices off about 40 cents/barrel. Soybeans are trying to show some resistance to lower corn futures but are having a tough time doing so. Wheat is not even trying to climb its way higher with the sharply lower corn market.
Despite persisting dryness to the western areas of the US hard red winter wheat belt, wheat futures are falling off this morning. It seems the market is focusing more on falling corn prices right now and the yield numbers from last week's tour. The tour pegged yield at about 41 bushels per acre, compared to last year's findings and estimate of about 42 bushels per acre. Conditions are expected to decline further for the HRW crop today as well but the market seems to be paying little attention at the moment. Wheat export sales have been pretty good for the new crop marketing year but it looks like our old crop sales could fall short of estimates.
Tight old crop supplies and ideas that not as many US acres will switch from corn to soybeans are keeping soybean prices from falling off too far this morning. Falling corn prices are doing their work, though, as soybeans are just a few cents lower this morning. Domestic demand could be cut due to tight crush margins. One Cargill facility is to close for an undetermined amount of time due to poor margins. Bean oil and canola futures are trying to trade higher this morning but are having difficulty doing so with the falling soybean and crude oil markets. It looks to be a fairly quiet market for the oilseeds today.
Corn futures are sharply lower this morning, posting double digit losses as the planting outlook for the US has improved over the weekend. Weather forecasts on Friday were pretty conflicting but it seems like today the general consensus is for warmer, drier weather across many US corn growing areas. I'm hearing pretty wide estimates for planting progress numbers this morning as some are saying the USDA could report us at 9-11% planted and others are saying the US is as much as 15-20% planted as of yesterday evening. Either way we'll still be pretty far behind the five year average of 47% complete at this time. Asian buyers are reportedly looking for more corn due to concerns about what may happen to prices with US planting delays. There are estimates around for bigger than currently forecast South American corn crops.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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