SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 2/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is up 1-3 cents and weakening, hard red winter wheat tour results are mixed, export sales for the week are strong (Mpls July last trade 8.17, KC July 7.82 ¼)
Soybeans are 2-4 higher, slight recovery after yesterday, high weekly new crop export sales (July last trade 13.75 ¾)
Corn is up 3-5 cents, planting concerns, higher weekly ethanol production and good export sales (July last trade 6.52 ¼)
Sunflowers are 0-5 higher, bean oil only slightly higher this morning, crude prices up about 40 cents/barrel
Canola is 0-5 higher, futures cautiously optimistic after sharply lower day yesterday
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main location will be closed for dumping through May 10th for maintenance. The office is open during this time. Thank you and please call if you have any questions!
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by April 30th. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space limitations at any given location.
Yesterday:
Outside influences were the main factors in the grain markets yesterday. Poor Chinese economic data had the soybean markets sharply lower, especially when combined with ideas that US acres will be rising fairly substantially. Soybeans finished the day 26 cents/bushel lower and were the leader for lower prices in yesterday's session. Canola, sunflowers and flax all took cue from a falling soybean complex and sharply lower crude oil prices. Canola was down 45 cents, flax a dime and sunflowers 15 cents. Wheat prices followed suit and finished the day with spring wheat and hard red winter wheat futures down seven cents each. Corn was down four cents with fund selling pressuring prices.
Today:
Grain futures are mixed this morning after trading mostly higher throughout the overnight session. Wheat prices are weakening after showing gains of about a nickel. Soybeans are on both sides of unchanged and corn is just a bit higher. The US dollar is higher this morning and crude prices are recovering slightly from their beating yesterday, up about 55 cents/barrel at the moment. Weather forecasts are being analyzed by the market but right now many are changing and conflicting each other, making it difficult for grains to know which way to trade today. Old crop corn and soybean futures may find some support from tight old crop US supplies.
The hard red winter wheat tour has been finding much variation along its route. In central Kansas yield was found to be close to that of last year's tour. This year's tour determined the central KS yield to be at 43.8 bpa, compared to last year's find of 44 bpa. Things did not go so well in western and southern Kansas, though, as yields were at about 37 bpa this year and 43.7 bpa last year. In areas the crop is said to be 3-4 weeks behind in development. Final tour results will be announced tonight and the market will be anxiously awaiting. Another freeze threat could also keep prices supported. Export sales for the week were pretty good at 716.5 thousand metric MT(TMT) which is higher than what the market estimated (300-500 TMT). The sales were mostly new crop, which makes sense considering the new calendar year starts June 1 for wheat.
Soybeans do not have much fresh news to trade off of this morning, other than fairly decent export sales. Old crop sales saw net cancelations for the week but new crop sales were great and put net sales for the week at 1231.2 TMT, well above estimates that ranged from 600-900 TMT. South American harvest is wrapping up with Brazil about done and Argentina nearly 60% complete. Movement of the newly harvested crop will continue to be strong, though, in the coming months. Canola futures are cautiously higher this morning after being sold off sharply yesterday. Crude prices are higher but bean oil is having a tough time hanging onto gains.
The corn market is hoping to see US planting progress at 10-15% complete in Monday morning's report, this is well behind the average of 48% complete. Planting delays could start to be more and more of a market influence as we move forward if things don't pick up. A large storm moving through the central corn belt will keep things supported as well. Export sales for the week were the best we have seen in a long time at 985.3 TMT, right in line with estimates that ranged from 800-1000 TMT. Ethanol production was also slightly higher than last week's, so there are a few reasons to be seeing slightly higher corn prices right now.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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