SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - May 1/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:35 AM CDT:
Wheat is 7-12 lower, profit taking hits the markets hard this morning and prices fall despite unfavorable weather forecasts (Mpls July last trade 8.16 ½, KC July 7.83 ¼)
Soybeans are down 18-25 cents, profit taking and ideas corn acres will move to soybeans as planting delays look to continue (July last trade 13.76 ½)
Corn is 5-7 lower, profit taking is the main reason for lower corn prices (July last trade 6.44 ½)
Sunflowers are off 10-15 cents, bean oil lower with soybeans and crude
Canola is down 25-30 cents, futures falling with US markets sharply lower this morning
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main location will be closed for dumping through May 10th for maintenance. The office is open during this time. Thank you and please call if you have any questions!
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by April 30th. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space limitations at any given location.
Yesterday:
Grain futures started out the day mostly higher yesterday but struggled as the session progressed. Corn futures chopped their way lower and finished the day down nine cents as profit taking set in. Soybeans also finished the day nine cents lower as ideas that unplanted corn acres will go to soybeans pressured prices. Canola, flax and sunflower prices were all lower with the falling soybean market. Wheat futures were higher yesterday, led by the hard red winter wheat market which rallied 15 cents for the day. Cold temperatures to hard red winter wheat growing areas were the primary reason for the rally yesterday. Spring wheat basis dropped 10 cents which negated the gain in the futures market.
Today:
Crude prices are down heavily this morning, losing about $2.30/barrel at the moment. Renewed economic concerns have the crude market lower. The US dollar is also lower this morning which is usually a bit more supportive to grain prices. However, it seems that general profit taking in commodity markets is enough to put things lower today and futures are struggling across the board. The market seems to be ignoring weather issues right now and focusing solely on Monday's rally and coming off highs since then.
The hard red winter wheat tour on day one found sharply lower yields than on last year's first day. Yields averaged 43.8 bushels per acre (bpa) versus last year's 53.4 bpa on the first day. Conditions are expected to worsen as the tour moves south into more drought/frost impacted areas. Frost damage found the first day has been called "cosmetic" and is not thought to have done a whole lot of substantial damage to the crop. A snowstorm is moving its way through eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Minnesota right now. This will further delay the planting effort but could provide some relief to dry areas. However, mass amounts of snow are certainly not needed for planting progress but the markets seem to be ignoring this news for the time being. Spring wheat basis seems to be softening on the export and milling sides lately as movement has picked up a little over the past week or so. As planting starts selling will likely come to a halt but the market is still confident that a lot of wheat will get sold and moved between planting and harvest.
There is really little fresh news to report for the soybean market this morning. Profit taking is hammering prices and futures are posting double digit losses this morning. Adding weight to things are ideas that the delayed corn planting in the US could add substantial soybean acres. South America is expected to see strong exports in the month of may as movement continues, which may also weigh on things. The soybean market is also a bit concerned about the state of the Chinese economy due to manufacturing data that was released today which has us wonder how that could impact their demand. Falling crude prices also probably have something to do with the weaker soybean market this morning as economic concerns in general have crude price slower. Canola and soybean oil futures are lower this morning which is going to lead to a lower day for the other oilseeds as well. Flax bids are already down a dime this morning.
US corn planting is expected to fall further behind as more cold and precipitation are forecast for growing areas toward the end of the week. Some decent progress should be made in some areas before adverse weather is seen, though it is not expected to be enough to make up for how far behind things are. Monday's rally seems to be limiting gains and to have attracted some selling pressure to the market. Corn is focused on weather and outside influences right now. There is little fresh demand news to keep prices excited, but we can always see if weekly export sales have anything to offer tomorrow.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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