SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 24/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is down 0-4 cents, followed corn weakness in overnight trade, forecasts turning favorable for planting (Mpls July last trade 7.98 ¾, KC July 7.38 ¾)
Soybeans are mixed, July futures up a penny balance are down about three cents, ideas that corn acres are switching/will switch to soybeans (July last trade 13.58 ½)
Corn is up 2-4 cents, after starting lower in the overnight session it seems that some buying interest spurred by profit taking has resulted in higher prices (July last trade 6.17 ¾)
Sunflowers are 0-5 higher, bean oil is only slightly stronger this morning and other than that there isn't much to guide sunflower prices
Canola is 15-20 cents higher, futures up pretty strongly this morning, maybe the market is starting to take notice that it could be tough for Canada to get acres in this year
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main location will be closed for dumping beginning April 29th through May 10th for maintenance. The office will be open during this time. Thank you and please call if you have any questions!
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by April 30th. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space limitations at any given location.
Yesterday:
Grain markets were lower most of the day yesterday as they focused not on nearby, poor planting progress but on more favorable, long term forecasts. Forecasts across most US growing areas look a lot better in the 10-15 day and that's what the market is hanging onto. That planting will happen, even if it starts just a bit behind pace this year. Corn futures were down nine cents for the day and soybeans were off six cents. Canola managed a higher close and I imagine the strength recently has something to do with Canadian planting issues and speculative buying. The wheat markets ignored poor weather conditions and focused on long term forecasts as well which resulted in spring wheat losing two cents and hard red winter wheat finishing the day down four cents.
Today:
Grain markets are mixed this morning and without any fresh, fundamental news are having a tough time making up their mind as to which way they want to go. Corn futures were lower in the overnight session but it seems that some profit taking has led to a bit of buying interest after the long fall in futures. Wheat prices are choppy with the corn market and are sticking around either side of unchanged with all three markets lower at the moment. Soybeans are seeing lower futures across the board despite continuing reports of sales to China. Statistics Canada will be out today with its planting intentions report - however Canada has a lot of snow to melt and concerns about whether or not those acres will get seeded are greater than knowing what's intended. Outside markets are favorable with the US dollar slightly lower and crude prices up about 60 cents/barrel.
US hard red winter wheat growing areas saw cold temperatures again last night. However, the market seems to be discounting the impact the recent freezes have had on the crop, thinking that the losses are not too extensive. Only time will tell but for now the market is just not too concerned. We should get some good information from next week's hard red winter wheat crop tour. US futures are also pretty confident about global wheat supplies, which may be why we're not really reacting to some of the issues going on in the US right now. Additionally, falling European wheat futures due to ideas that Black Sea exports could increase weigh on things. Black Sea production looks to improve this year due to favorable planting conditions. Wheat prices will also continue to look to corn for direction.
Nearby soybean futures could find support from the fact that nearby demand is dealing with some pretty tight supplies right now as farmer movement remains slow. Deferred soybean futures are not doing quite so well this morning even with continued confirmations of new crop soybean sales to China, indicating that long term demand prospects are looking pretty good as well. It seems that new crop futures are instead focusing on ideas that we could see up to three million acres of corn switch to soybeans due to planting delays and more attractive prices. I'm hearing some reports that Argentine soybeans are coming back with a bit lower protein this year which may also result in stronger demand for US soybeans. Canola futures are looking pretty good again this morning ahead of the StatsCan report.
Another line of rain showers is running through the Eastern Corn Belt this morning but the market is still holding out hopes for warmer, dryer long term forecasts. The market knows little will get done this week for planting but hopes are picking up for next week. The market also knows that once a planting window arrives that farmers will make rapid progress. Nearby pricing is being impacted by technical selling and demand concerns, which is why we have been seeing some price weakness lately. Today, though, prices seem to be pushed up with profit taking and technical buying interest.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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