SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Apr 22/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:30 AM CDT:
Wheat is 5-13 cents lower, winter wheat markets struggle but spring wheat posts losses that are less severe - rains to HRW belt viewed as favorable (Mpls July last trade 7.99 ¼, KC July 7.37 ½)
Soybeans are down 17-20 cents, concerns about Chinese demand due to bird flu problems (July last trade 13.66 ½)
Corn is 12-15 cents lower, planting progress looks to pick up after this week according to weather forecasts (July last trade 6.21)
Sunflowers are down 15-20 cents, bean oil is sharply lower with falling soybeans and soybean meal this morning
Canola is 15-20 cents lower, futures falling with soybean complex, general selling
*Minot Main Scheduled Maintenance Closure*
The Minot Main location will be closed for dumping beginning April 29th through May 10th for maintenance. The office will be open during this time. Thank you and please call if you have any questions!
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by April 30th. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space limitations at any given location.
Friday:
Grains did ok on Friday with the corn and wheat markets finding some strength. Wheat was higher on US weather concerns and the impact of recent cold weather on the hard red winter wheat crop. Spring wheat finished the day up four cents and hard red winter wheat was up a penny. Corn was up four cents on the day as potential planting delays in the US provided support. Soybeans did not do so well and lost eight cents due to profit taking and ideas that producers will switch form corn acres to soybean acres. Canola managed a higher close for the day but sunflowers were down 20 cents and flax was unchanged.
Today:
Grain markets are lower across the board and it looks like we're going to start the week with some pretty solid losses. Outside markets are mixed with both the US dollar and crude futures trading higher. Good news out of Europe - Italy has a new president who will hopefully help turnaround the state of the economy - has the European stock markets excited. Worries about demand out of China are growing as the bird flu spreads and the poultry sector falters.
Precipitation fell, and is forecast to fall, across some of the dry hard red winter wheat growing areas. This could help to ease some of the concern about the wheat crop in states such as Kansas and Nebraska - we'll see how, and if, crop conditions change in the coming weeks. Today it looks like prices are going to fall off with the corn market as there is little else fundamentally for wheat to trade off of this morning that justifies these losses. Export demand for US wheat has been pretty steady and that looks to continue as we move forward. Improving weather to European growing conditions have been noted as well. Spring wheat planting progress is not expected to change much in this afternoon's report.
Concerns about Chinese demand are the primary reason for lower soybean prices this morning. China has reported additional bird flu deaths over the weekend. The losses in the poultry sector have totaled in the billions and are expected to climb. The decline in poultry demand will impact soymeal and corn demand which is why the soybean market is having such a heavy reaction to the news. Of course, US supplies remain tight until new crop arrives. However, South American supplies will help to make up for that. Logistics in South America are still messy but have reportedly improved quite a bit as harvest slows down in Brazil. Of course, soybeans will be keeping an eye on corn planting progress as the market is concerned that corn acres will switch to soybeans.
Corn futures are lower this morning due to the rains in dry areas of the corn belt. The eastern corn belt is a bit too wet, though, as some flooding has been reported. Planting delays are still likely in the eastern corn belt but it seems that after this week forecasts are starting to look good for getting things done. Not much progress is expected this week but if forecasts are right, planters could get rolling next week in some corn growing areas, which would make delays a thing of the past for many. The market is expected to see planting progress at 4-6% complete in this afternoon's weekly report, which would be just behind average pace. Chinese corn imports could also get cut with the bird flu reducing feed demand. However, some weather issues could result in less corn acres planted in China which may result in some long term demand potential.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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