SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 27/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:45 AM CDT:
Wheat is mixed, trading either side of unchanged, following a confused corn market (Mpls May last trade 8.09 ½, KC May 7.67 ½)
Soybeans are up 0-2 cents, waiting for USDA reports tomorrow, market not sure what to expect for stocks number (May last trade 14.49 ¼)
Corn is 1-3 lower, slight profit taking in front of tomorrow's reports, market uncertain about direction for today (May last trade 7.29 ¾)
Sunflowers are up 0-5 cents, bean oil slightly stronger with soybeans but if soybeans turn around, bean oil will probably too
Canola is 5-10 cents stronger, buying interest has prices a bit higher this morning, soybeans are a bit mixed
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by March 31st. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space availability at any given location.
Yesterday:
Grain markets were mixed to mostly higher in yesterday's trading session as things were pretty quiet as the markets wait for the pair of USDA reports to be released Thursday. Corn prices struggled and finished the day three cents lower as the market just gave back some of Tuesday's gains with profit taking hitting the market. Soybeans staged a little bit of a rally yesterday, with cash prices gaining a dime by the time the day was over. Canola and sunflower prices were higher with the rising soybean market. Buying seems to have returned pretty enthusiastically in the canola market as cash prices were up 35 cents/cwt. Wheat did fairly well at the close yesterday after spending most of the session mixed. Spring wheat was up a nickel for the day and hard red winter wheat was up nine cents.
Today:
Outside markets are unfavorable and grain markets are mixed and now mostly lower as they wait for fresh news tomorrow. The USDA's March 1st Quarterly Stocks report and Planting Intentions report will be closely watched tomorrow. It seems the trade will be paying the most attention to corn and soybean stocks. The past two years have seen pretty big swings in corn futures after the release of the March stocks report. The USDA reports are to be released at 11 AM tomorrow. After the stocks are released and traded the grain markets will begin to focus heavily on spring weather. Trade is thin and cautious today and it seems that now grain markets are being hit with a little bit of profit taking.
The wheat futures cannot seem to make up their mind on their own right now and are looking to corn prices for direction. Corn was a bit higher earlier this morning, so was wheat, but since corn has turned lower...so has wheat. Global demand news is fairly mixed. On the one hand, South Korea and Japan both bought some wheat. On the other, Australia beat out the US in some business to Iraq. News out of Egypt is mixed as well. Egypt reportedly has pretty low stockpiles and enough wheat to last just under 90 days. However, Egypt insists that it will not buy until late June due to a "lack of hard currency". A little closer to home - temperatures are expected to turn back to normal in the US southern plains, which may help to relieve some concerns about the state of the hard red winter wheat crop.
There is not much fresh news for the soybean market to report. A crop tour out of Brazil estimated the crop to be larger than the USDA is currently estimating. South American conditions are favorable for harvest progress and it looks to continue at a rapid pace while logistics remain messy. The market will be watching for a tight supply report tomorrow. If that does not happen we could see prices fall off a bit. Acres are expected to be up from baseline estimates.
The same crop tour that estimated a bigger soybean crop in Brazil also estimated a bigger corn crop in Brazil than what the USDA currently has as well. The corn market is really expecting to see tight supplies reported tomorrow. However, much of that has already been built into the market. If supplies are not as tight as thought corn prices will fall tomorrow. Big acres are expected and will likely be higher than the USDA's baseline estimates. Uncertainty about planting could keep prices in check, though, even though it's still pretty early to be getting concerned. Export demand is fairly quiet as buyers cite high prices.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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