SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 25/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:40 AM CDT:
Wheat is 3-5 cents lower, long term precip forecast for HRW growing areas, following corn and soybean markets (Mpls May last trade 8.01 ¾, KC May 7.57)
Soybeans are 7-9 cents lower, market just barely off overnight lows, ideas that the USDA will report larger planting numbers than initially thought (May last trade 14.31 ¾)
Corn is down 2-4 cents for old crop, new crop up a penny, market choppy in front of Thursday's reports, news of Argentine corn going to US feed markets (May last trade 7.23)
Sunflowers are down 0-5 cents, following bean oil and lower soybeans
Canola is up -5 cents, market just slightly stronger but could weaken with falling soybeans, higher crude prices may be somewhat supportive
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by March 31st. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month. DP availability is subject to space limitations at any given location.
Friday:
Grain markets were mixed with corn and soybeans leading the way lower but wheat prices finding some strength late in the session and pushing their way higher. Technical selling and position evening before this week's pair of USDA reports had the corn market on edge Friday. Eventually cash prices finished the day 12 cents lower. Soybeans were off nine cents for the day, erasing much of the gains seen earlier in the week. Wheat prices were mixed throughout the day with early pressure coming from the corn and soybean markets. Eventually, weather concerns in the hard red winter wheat growing areas were enough to push prices higher for the day. Spring wheat was up four cents and HRW was up a penny.
Today:
Grain markets are mostly lower with the exception of new crop corn prices which are about a penny higher. Trade seems pretty thin in the grain markets right now ahead of Thursday's USDA planting intentions and March 1 stocks reports. Pressure from South American crops are hitting the corn and soybean markets and it seems that wheat prices are following along for the ride. Outside markets are mixed with the US dollar higher and crude prices up about a dollar/barrel this morning. The CME has officially announced a change to trading hours and new hours are effective April 7. Trade will begin at seven PM Sunday-Thursday evenings (instead of five PM as they are now) and trade through until 7:45 AM at which time a 45 minute break will take place and then trade until 1:15 PM (instead of 2 PM). Apparently 21 hour trade was not ideal for some and many complaints about the trading hours were received, this is the solution.
Wheat prices cannot hold strength to the falling corn and soybean markets this morning and are off about a nickel so far this morning. Dry weather in the short term forecast for the US hard red winter wheat growing areas could provide some support to wheat prices this morning but seems to be doing little at the moment. Anyway, the six to ten day forecast calls for some moisture relief so those dry forecasts don't mean a whole lot at the moment. Also, there was some precip received over the weekend as well. These markets could use additional export news to keep prices excited and without it we look to be pretty choppy in front of Thursday's reports. The market is uncertain about where the USDA will put spring wheat acres. The estimate Friday from Informa economics put them up 75 thousand to 12.36 million (12.28 last year). Durum acres look to decline by 133 thousand from last year.
Soybean prices are just barely off their overnight lows but the gains from last week are a distant memory. Soybeans are struggling with ideas that US acres could be higher than initially thought as producers switch some of their intended corn acres over to soybeans. Informa economics seemed to confirm this in their estimates from Friday, with soybean acres up from last year by 1.2 million acres to 78.5 million. Large South American crops also keep things a bit on edge as movement into the global marketplace remains strong, slow, but strong. Sunflower acres were estimated to decrease by Informa by 48k to 1.87 million. Watch for the profit taking to continue this week, at least until Thursday.
Well Informa economics cut US corn acres from their initial estimates as expected. However, acres are still ridiculously high for the US this year. Informa pegged 2013 US corn acres at 97.7 million which is about a 600 thousand acre increase from last year. At, say, an estimated yield of 150 bushels/acre...that puts the US corn crop at 14.65 billion bushels this year. That's a lot of corn. Anyway the market looks to stay pretty quiet in front of Thursday's pair of reports as there is little other news for the market to trade off of.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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