SunPrairie Grain Morning Comment
MINOT - Mar 11/13 - SNS -- Following is the morning comment from SunPrairie Grain, a division of CHS.
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Market Outlook as of 8:25 AM CDT:
Wheat is 0-2 lower, ideas that global supplies are picking up, thoughts US hard red winter wheat conditions will improve (Mpls May last trade 7.92 ½, KC May 7.33 ¼)
Soybeans are up 3-5 cents, old crop performs better than new crop, likely with export demand optimism (May last trade 14.76 ¾)
Corn is 0-2 higher, market reluctantly follows soybeans, tries to follow through with Friday's price action (May last trade 7.04 ¼)
Sunflowers are 0-5 higher, bean oil fairly quiet today, doesn't look like much will happen to sunflower or flax prices
Canola is up 0-5 cents, futures slightly higher but if soybeans can't manage to stay higher canola won't either
*CHS Harvest for Hunger*
We are in the midst of the annual CHS Harvest for Hunger campaign! CHS Country Operations locations are working together to raise over two million meals for hungry families. Best of all is that for every donation we collect, CHS Country Operations will also make a local contribution to help our friends and neighbors right here in our community. If you would like to make a contribution to Harvest for Hunger you can do so by selling grain or making a cash donation at your local SunPrairie Grain office by March 20th. Let's work together to make this the most successful Harvest for Hunger yet!
*Delayed Price Program*
SunPrairie Grain is offering free DP until July 31st, 2013 on spring wheat and winter wheat delivered by March 15th. All new deliveries of corn and soybeans can be put on DP for 5 cents/bushel/month. Sunflower new deliveries can also be put on delayed for 15 cents/cwt/month.
Friday:
Grains opened up a bit choppy and stayed that way in front of the USDA report that was released at 11 am. The report didn't provide too much in the way of surprises but supportive news did come to a couple of the grains. Corn, for example, was expecting the USDA to increase the US carryout estimate, it was instead kept unchanged. Despite decreasing US corn exports to the lowest level in 40 years, carryout estimates were left unchanged, due to an increase in feed/residual usage. Corn prices increased by 12 cents on Friday. The USDA left the soybean balance sheets unchanged, with no adjustments made to exports or carryout which was a bit disappointing. Soybeans struggled with the lack of new information and prices were down two cents on the day. South American soybean production saw Brazilian estimates unchanged and Argentinean down just slightly, as expected. Wheat markets were the hardest hit by the UDSA as a decline in exports resulted in an increase in carryout of 25 million bushels. Additionally, increased estimates for European Union and Indian production weighed things down. Basis increases, though, were enough to negate futures losses for the spring wheat and hard red winter wheat markets.
Today:
The grain futures are fairly quiet this morning as a lack of news and seemingly light trade have futures a bit choppy. Wheat prices are bouncing around both sides of unchanged while corn and soybean prices are a couple cents higher. The US dollar is slightly higher this morning and crude prices are down about 65 cents/barrel. After starting out a bit mixed US stock markets are higher this morning as investment money continues to flow into them. US grain futures will continue to keep an eye on precipitation prospects for the plains.
Wheat basis values keep on climbing as selling remains slow while demand is steady. There are some who feel that the wheat markets have reached their nearby lows and are due for some sort of correction. However, we could use some fresh, favorable news to get that correction rolling. Futures are struggling today, though, as the remnants of what the USDA said Friday are still being considered. Global supplies look to be a bit more abundant than initially thought. India still has a large amount of wheat to export before enough room is made for new crop. We're also expecting to see an increase to hard red winter wheat crop conditions due to the recent moisture received which may also put pressure on things.
Brazilian port logistics remain messy and ship loading wait times are long. There were lots of soybean sales announced last week which should mean that we will see strong export sales reported this week. There are hopes for the strong demand to continue as buyers look for reliable supply, which the US is good for. Increasing exports will keep the market focused on supply and it's a bit of a surprise that the USDA had no changes to exports or carryout in this month's S&D report. Looks like we get to wait until next month to see if any changes will be made. Bean oil is struggling a little this morning and canola futures are just barely higher, all in all it looks to be a fairly uneventful day for the oilseed markets.
Corn prices are a little bit higher this morning but gains are fading and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw lower corn prices as the session progresses. It seems that futures were trying to continue Friday's higher price action but just cannot seem to hold ground. The market was pleasantly surprised by the USDA leaving carryout unchanged, but it seems that excitement has faded into today's session. Also some good news that came out of Friday's report was a slight decline in the Argentine crop estimate and no change in the Brazilian crop size. New crop corn prices will continue to struggle as the recent precipitation over the corn belt has helped to alleviate some drought concerns. However, the recent amounts of rain are not enough to completely erase the drought and prices will likely remain in a weather market through the planting and development seasons.
Kayla Burkhart
Broker/Procurement
SunPrairie Grain
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1600 27th St SE | Minot, ND 58701
P 701.857.9322 | F 701.839.5515 | C 701.720.4682
kayla.burkhart
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Kayla Hoffman
SunPrairie Grain
Kayla.Hoffman@chsinc.com
Toll free: 800.735.4956
Local: 701.852.1429
Fax: 701.839.5515
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