Bigger Than Expected Canadian Forecast

OTTAWA - Aug 21/15 - SNS - Other than a minor adjustment in dry edible bean area, Statistics Canada left this year's seeded area estimates for pulses and specialty crops unchanged from its June seeding intentions report.

Ignoring soybeans, land in all pulses and specialty crops totals 8.755 million acres, up from 6.2% from last year's 8.24 million areas and well above the recent five-year average of 7.468 million. Despite the gains in seeded area, unusually dry and hot conditions have reduced average yields, with the result production could be down 9% at 5.67 million metric tons (MT).

Markets expected to see production fall. But most participants believe the next reports from Statistics Canada will show further reductions. It is important to note that Statistics Canada's estimates were based on a direct survey of about 13,000 Canadian farms between July 22 and August 3.

"At the time of the survey, many Alberta and Saskatchewan farmers reported that excessively dry growing conditions were affecting yields and harvestable area," Statistics Canada stressed.

Using a different survey methodology, Saskatchewan Agriculture came up with similarly "high" yield forecasts, but both sets of numbers are viewed with caution because of the low percentage of crop harvested at the time of the survey and the fact weather has not been overly cooperative.