AgCanada Optimistic About Pea Yields
WINNIPEG Jul 27/16 - SNS -- In its latest monthly review of Canadian field peas Agriculture Canada's market analysis branch in Winnipeg updated its supply and demand forecasts for 2015. Area was updated to reflect this year's seeded area estimates from Statistics Canada. Production forecasts are not based on surveys and are not official forecasts.
Bobby Morgan, Pulse and Special Crop Analyst, predicts pea production this year will reach 3.25 million MT from 3.7 million acres, compared to 3.445 million MT from 3.923 million acres in 2014. However, in releasing the numbers, Agriculture Canada said they will likely be revised lower in August.
Agriculture Canada expects exports to reach 2.7 million MT in 2015-16, compared to 3.0 million MT in 2014-15 and 2.78 million MT last season. Domestic use is forecast at 620,000 MT next season, compared to 684,000 MT this season and 1.072 million last season.
Season ending stocks are forecast to finish the 2015-16 marketing year at 50,000 MT, versus 100,000 this season and 309,000 MT the previous season.
Agriculture Canada predicts grower bids for all classes of peas will range between $240 and $270 MT this season and between $250 and $280 MT in 2015-16.
AgCanada Comment
Discussing the situation facing field pea markets, Morgan said, "(This summer's) carry-out stocks . . . are expected to tighten to low levels due to the export pace and despite lower domestic use. The average dry pea price is expected to fall marginally from 2013-14 as lower green pea prices have more than offset higher yellow pea prices.
"Green dry peas prices are expected to maintain a crop year premium of $30 MT over yellow dry peas, which is below the historical average and below the record $160 MT premium green peas had over yellow peas in 2013-14. During the month of June, Saskatchewan green and yellow pea farmgate prices were unchanged. This was largely due to a significant portion of the Canadian dry pea crop being in only fair to poor condition and the expectation that there will be a decrease in Canadian green pea production for 2015-16.
His comments continue as follows:
For 2015-16, dry pea seeded area in Canada fell to 1.5 million hectares, marginally lower than 2014-15 despite higher returns relative to other crops and continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan. Saskatchewan accounts for 58% of the dry pea area, Alberta for 39%, with the remainder seeded in Manitoba and British Columbia.
Production is forecast to fall by nearly 6% due to below average yields. Continued hot, dry weather in Saskatchewan and Alberta is expected to reduce yields in these provinces.
However, supply is forecast to fall by 11% to 3.4 million MT due to the lower carry-in stocks combined with a decrease in production. Exports are forecast to decrease to 2.7 million MT due to the limited exportable supply, with India, China and Bangladesh continuing to be Canadas top markets. Carry-out stocks are also forecast to fall for the third consecutive year. The average price is expected to rise from 2014-15, due to the lower supply and continued expectations for strong import demand from the Indian subcontinent.
In the US, area seeded to dry peas for 2015-16 is forecast by the USDA to rise by 7% from 2014-15 to a record 1.0 million acres. This is largely due to an expected rise to a record area in Montana. Assuming normal yields and abandonment, US dry pea production is forecast by AAFC to rise by 3% to a record 0.81 million MT. The US has been successful in exporting small amounts of dry peas to common Canadian exports markets in China and India and it is expected the US will continue to its expand its market share in 2015-16.
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