India's Monsoon Debate Rises, Forecast Worsens
VANCOUVER - Jun 3/15 - SNS -- India's Meteorological Department is more certain this year's monsoon will be below normal, seeing a worsening outlook for kharif season rainfall.
In its latest forecast is predicted rainfall for the country is like to be 88% of the long term average. Given the margin of error, rainfall is expected to range between 84% and 92% of average.
Accumulations are only expected to be 85% of average in northwest India, compared to 90% in Central India, 92% over the South Peninsula and 90% over North-East India. The error in each region is plus or minus 8%.
Government forecasters think rainfall accumulations in July will be 92% of average and 90% of average in August. In bother cases, rain could be 9% more or less.
Private forecasters disagree. Skymet continues to believe this year's monsoon will be 102% of average. It argues the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) will remain positive. In the past, this has offset the negative impacts of El Nino events, resulting in normal monsoon rains.
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