Seeding Intentions Catch Trade Off-Guard

VANCOUVER - Apr 24/13 - SNS -- Statistics Canada's seeding intentions report caught many market participants by off-guard. Not because the numbers were surprising, but because most of the numbers were not.

Based on a survey of about 13,805 farmers between March 25 and April 3, Statistics Canada said farmers intend to massively increase land in wheat, plant record quantities of corn and soybeans; and reduce land in summerfallow; while seeding fewer pulses and special crops than last year.

Heading into the report, land in all specialty crops was expected to come in at 6.95 million acres, but Statistics Canada pegged the number at 6.48 million, down from 7.09 million last year, but above the 5.95 million acres sown in 2011. Most of the difference between what was expected and what farmers says they intend to seed, stems from an unexpected drop in canary and sunflower seed area.

"Farmers may modify their plans prior to planting time as a result of environmental conditions," Statistics Canada added. "Some farmers reported that they were still undecided about their final strategies for 2013 as snow lingered in fields in most parts of Canada at the time of the survey."

Discussing other crops, Statistics Canada said canola area could be down 11.1% this year at 19.1 million acres, the first decrease in canola area at the national level since 2006.

This decrease is mainly driven by Saskatchewan, where farmers anticipate a 10.9% decrease in canola area to 10.0 million acres. Decreases in canola acreage are also expected in all other provinces. Alberta canola area may decline 8.6% to 5.9 million acres and Manitoba canola acreage may decrease 15.8% to 3.0 million acres.

Nationally, spring wheat area could rise 14.4% or 2.4 million acres to 19.4 million acres in 2013. Similarly, durum wheat acreage is expected to increase for a third consecutive year to 5.1 million acres in 2013, up from 4.7 million acres in 2012.

In Saskatchewan, intentions show spring wheat acreage rising to 9.9 million acres, up 17.0% or 1.4 million acres. Durum wheat acreage in Saskatchewan is expected to rise 7.8% to 4.4 million acres in 2013.

In Alberta, land seeded to spring wheat could reach 6.4 million acres, up 10.5% from the area seeded in 2012. In Manitoba, farmers anticipate seeding 2.8 million acres of spring wheat, up 14.9% from 2012.

At a national level, barley area is expected to decrease 2.2% to 7.2 million acres. Canadian farmers also plan to seed 3.4 million acres of oats in 2013, up 18.4% from 2012.

In Ontario, farmers expect to seed 2.3 million acres of corn for grain, up 2.0% from 2012. This would be above the previous record of 2.2 million acres set in 2012. In Quebec, farmers anticipate the area seeded in corn for grain to rise 15.8% to reach 1.1 million acres in 2013.

Canadian farmers are expecting to seed a record soybean area of 4.3 million acres in 2013, up 3.4% from 2012. This increase is mainly driven by Manitoba, where farmers anticipate seeding a record 1.1 million acres of soybeans in 2013.

Conversely, slight decreases are expected in Ontario and Quebec. Ontario farmers anticipate seeding 2.5 million acres of soybeans in 2013, down 4.8% from the record 2012 area. Meanwhile, Quebec farmers plan to seed 667,200 acres of soybeans, down 3.6%.

Soybean area was not estimated for Saskatchewan, which expects a significant increase in plantings this spring.

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