Lower Special Crop Area in Canada

WINNIPEG - Jan 29/13 - SNS -- Agriculture Canada thinks farmers will reduce this year's pulse and specialty crop area by 7.6% to 6.55 million acres from last year's 7.09 million.

Agriculture Canada's forecast is based on current market conditions. It is not based on a survey of farmers. The first indication of what farmers will do this year will be contained in Statistics Canada's seeding intentions report to be released on April 24. The first estimate of actual seeded area will be released on June 25.

Bobby Morgan, Agriculture Canada's Pulse and Special Crop Analyst based in Winnipeg, said, "For pulses and special crops in Canada, due to lower area seeded/harvested, and despite higher average yields, production is forecast to decrease to 4.85 million metric tons (MT). Despite lower supply, exports, domestic use and carry-out stocks are forecast to be similar to 2012-13. On average, prices are expected to increase for lentils, dry beans, mustard and canary seed, while prices are expected to decrease for dry peas, chickpeas and sunflower seed."

Looking at what might happen this spring, Morgan said field peas should increase marginally "because of higher returns relative to other crops and continued recognition of the benefits of dry peas as part of crop rotation plan."

By contrast, lentil area is expected to drop for the fourth consecutive year "due to lower returns in 2012-13, particularly for large green lentil types, compared to other crops. As a result, production is forecast to fall sharply. However, the decrease in supply will be dampened by burdensome carry-in stocks which will partly offset the lower production," Morgan stressed.

Agriculture Canada expects dry edible bean area to "fall sharply from 2012-13 . . . . because of lower potential returns compared to other crops, particularly soybeans and corn. Production is expected to decrease by 38% to 180,000 MT. However, supply is only expected to fall by 16% due to large carry-in stocks."

In the case of chickpeas, Morgan said "the area seeded is forecast to fall from 2012-13 because of higher carry-in stocks and continuing decline in prices from the records set in 2011-12. As a result, production is expected to fall to 120,000 MT."

Mustard seed plantings are expected to be up slightly "due to higher expected prices" while higher yields could result in a proportionately larger increase in output.

Morgan does not think canaryseed area will change much this year "due to good returns relative to other crops and lower carry-in stocks." On the other hand, sunflower seed plantings in Manitoba are "expected to rise from 2012-13 due to record yields the previous year and expectations for good returns."