Smaller Than Feared Pulse Estimates

VANCOUVER - Oct 4/10 - SNS -- Statistics Canada's crop production estimates will provide further ammunition to market bulls based on the idea that the survey could not fully account for yield losses because it was taken several weeks before the bulk of the crop be harvested.

The computer assisted telephone survey 14,000 Canadian farmers was conducted from September 1 to September 9, 2010. By the time the survey was done, the lentil harvest was roughly 29% complete, peas 57% complete, mustard seed 22%, and chickpeas 2%, while no canaryseed or sunflower had been harvested.

Normally, the lentil harvest is almost 80% complete by the time the September crop production survey is finished, while the pea harvest is usually 83% complete, mustard 53%, canaryseed 19%, chickpeas 40%, and the sunflower harvest just 1% complete.

Discussing the situation at the time of the survey, Statistics Canada said, "Farmers reported that cool and wet conditions delayed seeding in some parts of the Prairies, while wet weather in September was reported to be delaying the harvesting of crops. Since the survey was taken, widespread frost has been reported on the Prairies and the resulting effects on final yield and production will be reflected in the November survey."

The comments suggest current forecasts of a record lentil harvest may not hold, though total specialty crop production in Canada could still beat last year's record 9.08 million metric tons (MT) result. Total special crop output is currently forecast at 9.383 million MT, well above the recent five year average of just 8.093 million MT, with rapid expansion of lentil acreage the primary reason this sector of Canada's agricultural economy is growing.