Moderate Surprise Over Ending Stocks Estimates

OTTAWA - Sep 7/22 - SNS -- Pulse and specialty crop markets were moderately surprised by Statistics Canada's ending stocks estimates for the 2021-22 marketing year.

As expected, last year's drought reduced harvest and relatively good export movement resulted in year over year declines in ending stocks of all the specialty crops considered by Statistics Canada.

The federal agency noted that on farm stocks were derived from a survey of approximately 25,000 farmers from May 13 to June 10 with the final number produced as part of a triannual supply and disposition exercise, which includes data related to commercial stocks as of July 31.

Inventories of special crops were ostensibly based on a survey of handlers and agents. This is clearly the case for sunflower seed. But Statistics Canada only used Canadian Grain Commission data for peas, lentils, chickpeas, canary and mustard seed.

That data only includes inventories reported by primary and process elevators as well as terminals in Canada's ports. Not all companies are required to report weekly receipts from growers and inventories. Reporting requirements are linked to the type of grain dealers license. Similarly, product enroute to ports is not considered.