WASHINGTON - Jul 10/20 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.22 billion bushels, down 4% from the June 1 forecast and down 7% from 2019, reports the USDA in its latest crop production estimates.
Hard Red Winter production, at 710 million bushels, is down 4% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 280 million bushels, is down 6% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 227 million bushels, is up 1% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 15.5 million bushels are Hard White and 212 million bushels are Soft White.
Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 52.0 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 1.6 bushels from last year's average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 23.4 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2020, but down 4% from last year. A record high yield is forecast in Oklahoma for 2020.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's levels in Oklahoma, but below last year's level in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas. As of June 28, harvest progress was at or ahead of normal in Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas but behind normal in Kansas and Nebraska. Harvest had not yet begun in Montana as of June 28, 2020.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Illinois and Ohio but below last year's level in Missouri. As of June 28, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was equal to the 5-year average pace in Illinois but behind the 5-year average pace in Missouri and Ohio.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year.
Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2019 and Forecasted July 1, 2020 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2020 : : : 2019 : 2020 : 2019 :-------------------: 2019 : 2020 : : : : June 1 : July 1 : : ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ------- bushels ------- --- 1,000 bushels --- : Arkansas .......: 50 75 52.0 56.0 56.0 2,600 4,200 California .....: 100 90 50.0 54.0 85.0 5,000 7,650 Colorado .......: 2,000 1,550 49.0 38.0 33.0 98,000 51,150 Idaho ..........: 680 670 87.0 87.0 90.0 59,160 60,300 Illinois .......: 550 500 67.0 73.0 68.0 36,850 34,000 Indiana ........: 260 310 62.0 71.0 70.0 16,120 21,700 Kansas .........: 6,500 6,400 52.0 49.0 48.0 338,000 307,200 Kentucky .......: 330 375 76.0 73.0 63.0 25,080 23,625 Maryland .......: 165 190 75.0 70.0 72.0 12,375 13,680 Michigan .......: 480 480 71.0 81.0 80.0 34,080 38,400 : Mississippi ....: 21 20 47.0 47.0 43.0 987 860 Missouri .......: 390 390 63.0 65.0 63.0 24,570 24,570 Montana ........: 1,900 1,450 50.0 50.0 49.0 95,000 71,050 Nebraska .......: 970 850 57.0 51.0 48.0 55,290 40,800 North Carolina .: 225 380 56.0 60.0 61.0 12,600 23,180 North Dakota ...: 70 35 53.0 40.0 40.0 3,710 1,400 Ohio ...........: 385 480 56.0 76.0 75.0 21,560 36,000 Oklahoma .......: 2,750 2,700 40.0 38.0 42.0 110,000 113,400 Oregon .........: 730 730 68.0 58.0 60.0 49,640 43,800 South Dakota ...: 770 580 52.0 52.0 51.0 40,040 29,580 : Tennessee ......: 215 230 67.0 66.0 61.0 14,405 14,030 Texas ..........: 2,050 2,100 34.0 33.0 32.0 69,700 67,200 Virginia .......: 105 165 62.0 61.0 61.0 6,510 10,065 Washington .....: 1,700 1,650 70.0 74.0 74.0 119,000 122,100 Wisconsin ......: 150 120 64.0 71.0 70.0 9,600 8,400 : Other States 1/ : 781 919 56.5 52.8 53.8 44,126 49,444 : United States ..: 24,327 23,439 53.6 52.1 52.0 1,304,003 1,217,784 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2020 Summary."
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