STAT Communications Ag Market News

Rice Output Forecast Rises

WASHINGTON - Nov 10/15 - SNS -- U.S. rice production is forecast at 191 million cwt (100 pound units), up 2% from October but down 14% from last year, according to the latest USDA crop production estimates for 2015.

Area for harvest is expected to total 2.57 million acres, unchanged from October but down 12% from last year. Based on conditions as of November 1, the average United States yield is forecast at 7,423 pounds per acre, up 116 pounds from the October forecast but 149 pounds below the 2014 average yield of 7,572 pounds per acre. Expected yields are down from last year in all States except California. If realized, a record high yield is expected in California.

By October 18, 95% of the United States acreage was harvested, 5 percentage points ahead of the same time last year and 8 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.

Rice Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2014 and Forecasted
November 1, 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :   Area harvested    :            Yield per acre            :    Production 1/
              :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     State    :          :          :            :          2015           :          :
              :   2014   :   2015   :    2014    :-------------------------:   2014   :   2015
              :          :          :            : October 1  : November 1 :          :
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              :     1,000 acres         ------------ pounds -----------      ---- 1,000 cwt ---
              :
Arkansas .....:  1,480      1,296       7,560        7,400        7,400      111,957     95,904
California ...:    431        411       8,580        8,000        8,600       36,993     35,346
Louisiana ....:    458        414       7,130        6,600        6,700       32,658     27,738
Mississippi ..:    190        150       7,420        7,100        7,200       14,096     10,800
Missouri .....:    213        169       6,830        6,600        6,800       14,540     11,492
Texas ........:    147        130       7,340        7,600        7,300       10,791      9,490
              :
United States :  2,919      2,570       7,572        7,307        7,423      221,035    190,770
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes sweet rice production.
Rice Production by Class - United States: 2014 and Forecasted November 1, 2015
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                :                :                :
    Year    :   Long grain   :  Medium grain  : Short grain 1/ :      All
            :                :                :                :
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            :                             1,000 cwt
            :
2014 .......:    162,379           56,391           2,265           221,035
2015 2/ ....:    132,364           56,011           2,395           190,770
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Sweet rice production included with short grain.
2/ The 2015 rice production by class forecasts are based on class harvested
   acreage estimates and the 5-year average class yield compared to the all rice
   yield.

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