Bullish Tone in Crop Report

VANCOUVER - Dec 4/14 - SNS -- Canada's final crop report of the year was a rare and potentially bullish event. For one of the first times in several years, Statistics Canada reduced its production estimates for special crops from its initial forecasts.

Commenting on the reasons for the drop, Statistics Canada said its survey of around 26,200 Canadian farmers between October 22 and November 13 found farmers complaining that the timing of rain throughout the fall caused harvest delays and lower yields.

Production of all special crops and pulses ended up at 6.056 million metric tons (MT), down 5% from October's 6.377 million MT forecast and down 12% from last year's record 6.858 million MT crop. Compared to last year, output was down for lentils, peas, chickpeas and canaryseed; but up for dry edible beans and mustard seed.

At the same time, Statistics Canada adjusted seeded area for pulses and special crops. The final estimate for land in lentils was down 1% at 3.11 million acres; peas down 3% at 3.795 million; edible beans down 12% at 305,000; chickpeas unchanged at 170,000 acres; canaryseed dropped 8% to 275,000; mustard rose 8% to 500,000; and sunflower seedings were 25% lower the previous estimate at 75,000 acres.

Combined with lower than expected yields, final production numbers were lower than October's report for all special crops. The biggest drop was registered by sunflower, with output ending up 30% lower than expected at 55,000 MT; while this year's lentil harvest estimate was cut 5% from October and field peas 3%.

Significantly, markets wanted to see an increase in pulse production numbers to avoid the risk tight supplies would become a bullish factor during the final third of the marketing year.