No Surprise in Key Carry-Over Numbers

VANCOUVER - Sep 6/13 - SNS -- Ending stock estimates for pea sand lentils were higher than expected by many processors and exporters as Statistics Canada revised production and carry-over data for prior years, bringing carry-over numbers closer to what was anticipated by STAT Publishing.

As expected, total inventories of pulses and other specialty crops were down sharply from last year. The marketing year ended with a combined total of 602,000 metric tons (MT) on hand, less than half last year's 1.273 million and down almost two-thirds from the 1.569 million on hand at the end of the 2010-11 marketing year.

As has been the case the past couple of years, lentils accounted for the biggest share of ending stocks. At 300,000 MT in all positions, they represented almost half the carry-over, compared to almost 68% last year. This is a welcome improvement because it signals that inventories are returning to more normal levels for western Canada's second most important pulse crop.

The drop in specialty crop inventories was part of a general decline in ending stocks. Statistics Canada reported that stocks of wheat fell 14.8% to 5.1 million MT as of July 31, mostly because of a 16.5% decline in commercial stocks. Stocks held on farms fell 202,000 MT to 1.6 million MT, mainly driven by Alberta, where on-farm stocks decreased by 160,000 MT (or -23.5%) to 520,000 MT. The five-year average for total stocks of wheat at July 31 is 5.5 million MT.

For canola, total stocks fell 14.0% to 608,100 MT as of July 31. This was significantly lower than the five-year average of 1.5 million MT. The decrease was mostly the result of a 24.3% drop in commercial stocks to 408,100 MT. However, on-farm stocks were up 19.0% from the same date in 2012 to 200,000 MT.

Total stocks of barley were down 17.7% (or -212,000 MT) from the same date a year earlier to 983,400 MT as of July 31. On-farm barley stocks explain the majority of the decline, with levels dropping 17.0% (or -163,000 MT) to 794,000 MT. The five-year average for total stocks of barley stands at 1.6 million MT.

Total stocks of oats declined 36.9% from July 31, 2012 to 510,800 MT. The five-year average levels stands at 846 200 MT. Commercial stocks were down 29.0% to 170 800 MT, while on-farm stocks fell 40.2% to 340,000 MT.

It should be noted that Statistics Canada based its numbers on a survey of 15,000 farmers between July 24 and August 5. Farmers were asked to report the amounts of grain, oilseeds and special crops in on-farm storage. Data on commercial stocks of western major crops originate from the Canadian Grain Commission as well as a survey of handlers and agents of special crops.