Larger World Pulse Crop Likely in 2013-14

VANCOUVER - May 24/13 - SNS -- Global pulse production is expected to rise at least 3.4% or roughly 2.2 million metric tons (MT) to 67.1 million in 2013 on account of solid gains in the size of India's desi chickpea harvest and North American field pea crops.

Initial worries about late seeding in Canada and the United States have been calmed by reports that farmers planted crops at a record pace as soon as they were able to get machinery in their fields. In many of the areas where pulses are grown, beginning soil moisture conditions are excellent.

The implication is that this year's North American pulse crops are starting out with the potential for above average yields. The timeliness and amount of rain received during the growing season, heat during flowering, disease, weed competition, and weather conditions during harvest can only subtract from the yield potential of crops.

What happens in North America is critical to world markets because Canada is the largest export producer of peas and lentils; while the United States is a strategically important dry edible bean producer. Other than being a key source of white beans for the United Kingdom's canning trade, the main focus of the North American edible bean trade is the domestic market, with imports occurring when there are production shortfalls and/or domestic prices rise to a large enough premium to world prices.

Among importers, India is the most important buyer. It is the world's largest producer, consumer and importer of pulses, buying between 3.5 and four million MT annually. India is regarded as a price conscious buyer. But the country's rapidly growing middle class is interested in diversifying its diet and is willing to pay more for quality and to try new types of products.

Even so, the majority of the population is poor and relies on agriculture for its livelihood. Consumption among this group is directly affected by crop yields and prevailing prices. That is the root of the Indian paradox. When agricultural output and incomes fall, the rural poor eat less and imports may decline. When output and incomes rise, food consumption rises and pulse imports typically increase.