Little Surprise in Canada's Final Estimates

VANCOUVER - Dec 6/11 - SNS -- Statistics Canada's final production estimates for 2011 offered psychological relief to the various specialty crop markets, with the lentil production estimate slipping, while output of other pulses and specialty crops were higher than original forecast.

The changes are unlikely to have much impact on next summer's ending stocks or prices in the coming weeks.

Most of the difference between the October and final crop reports reflect firmer numbers on the amount of land sown to individual crops and the addition of data for Manitoba and/or Alberta which had been excluded in prior reports this year.

The net result was this year's lentil production estimate slipped from 1.596 million metric tons (MT) in October to 1.532 million; while peas advanced from 2.009 to 2.116 million MT; chickpeas went from 53,900 to 90,800 MT; canaryseed from 77,100 to 102,300 MT; mustard seed from 113,400 to 124,800 MT; and dry edible bean output jumped from 130,200 to 144,600 MT.

Discussing the overall situation facing this year's crops, Statistics Canada said western Canadian farmers "reported that hot, sunny weather during the summer helped them recover from a damp and late spring in certain areas. Similarly, weather patterns in the East returned to normal after a particularly wet spring, especially in Quebec's Richelieu river valley."

It is important to note that Statistics Canada surveyed approximately 28,600 Canadian farmers between October 24 to November 10 for the final production estimates for 2011.