Massive Drop in Canadian Pulse Acreage

VANCOUVER - Apr 26/11 - SNS -- Canadian farmers intend to slash land in specialty crops an unprecedented amount as they massively increase land in cereal grains and seed a record amount of canola, according to this year's Statistics Canada seeding intentions report.

Just how keen farmers are about oilseeds and grains is reflected in the fact that they intend to reduce land in summerfallow to its lowest level in recent years at the same time as they reduce land in pulses. Summerfallow is forecast at 5.05 million acres, down from an intended 6.5 million acres last year and 6.23 million the previous year. Farmers ended up not being able to seed another five million acres of crop last year because of wet soil conditions, with the result they left 11.61 million acres in summerfallow.

Total land in specialty crops will drop 1.8 million acres to just under 6.6 million if farmers stick with their intentions. This is roughly 640,0000 acres below the recent five year average area for western Canada, and reflects deep disappointment with the relative price performance of peas and lentils versus canola and cereal grains thus far during the 2010-11 marketing campaign.

It is important not to take the numbers literally. Several important events have occurred in pulse markets since the survey, including problems shipping lentils to Europe because of differences in the maximum residue limits (MRL) for glyphosate. At the same time, wet soil conditions could keep farmers off their fields two to three weeks longer than usual, which could see them adjust seeding decisions based on moisture conditions and the length of seeding delays.

This year's survey took place between March 24 and 31 and covered 12,600 farmers. Statistics Canada explained, "Farmers were asked to report their intended plantings of grain, oilseeds and special crops. Farmers may modify their plans prior to planting time as a result of economic and environmental conditions. Some farmers indicated they were still undecided about their final strategies for 2011."

There can be a world of difference between the seeding intentions and actual seeded area. Last year, farmers said they planned to seed 2.88 million acres of lentils, but ended up planting 3.48 million. By contrast, farmers last year said they intended to seed over 3.6 million acres of peas, but ended up planting 3.45 million.

Over the past five years, Canadian farmers have planted an average 24% more lentils than intended, 3% less peas, 2% more beans, 4% more chickpeas, 12% less canaryseed, and 1% less mustard and sunflower seed. This is expected to be one of the few years where farmers end up planting less lentils than expected, but possibly more peas and chickpeas.

Record Canola Plantings

Discussing the situation for other crops, Statistics Canada said the big story is a plan to seed a record area of 19.2 million acres of canola. This would be the fifth consecutive annual increase in canola area on the Prairies.

"In Saskatchewan, following three years of seeded area ranging from 7.7 to 7.9 million acres, canola area could rise by 25.6%, or 2.0 million acres, to a record 9.8 million acres," Statistics Canada said. "The provincial record was 7.9 million acres set in 2009.

"Farmers in Alberta reported expecting to plant a record 5.9 million acres of canola, up 8.1% from the record seeded area of 5.5 million acres set in 2010."

Interest is wheat is also high, with major increases in spring wheat and durum planned for this spring. Prairie durum wheat area could rise by 60.3% or 1.9 million acres to 5.1 million acres in 2011, with much of the increase coming at the expense of lentils. Over the past decade, durum area has fluctuated considerably, from 6.5 million acres to a low of 3.2 million acres in 2010.

In Saskatchewan, where the majority of Canadian durum is grown, farmers may seed 4.4 million acres, up 57.0% or 1.6 million acres. Alberta farmers expect to plant 670,000 acres, an increase of 86.1% over the 2010 seeded area.

Farmers in Ontario and Quebec may plant the greatest area of corn for grain since 2007. Ontario corn for grain seeded area should rise by 125,000 acres to 2.0 million acres, an increase of 6.7% over 2010. The record area of corn for grain in Ontario was set in 2007 at 2.1 million acres. The area seeded to corn for grain in Quebec is reported to rise 8.1% to 988,400 acres. The record area was set in 2002 and repeated in 2007 at 1.1 million acres.

The area intended to be seeded to barley and oats are also expected to increase in 2011. At the national level, farmers anticipate seeding 7.8 million acres of barley, up 13.4% compared with the 6.9 million acres seeded in 2010. Similarly, acres seeded to oats could reach 4.1 million acres, an increase of 39.3% over 2010.

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