Weather Uncertainty Clouds Market Outlook

VANCOUVER - Jan 20/11 - SNS -- It is a good thing climate change and global warming are 'just so much hokum', otherwise you would think something was going on with the weather.

Yet, despite assurances from the best pseudo-scientists and public relations experts money can buy, actual scientists and most people on the planet seem to think there is more going on than normal, seasonal and regional variation in weather.

Not only was 2010 one of the three hottest years on record for the planet, it was marked by numerous record breaking weather events in several strategically important producing and consuming regions around the globe. In fact, in recent years there have been so many floods, droughts, cold or heat waves and storm events of the century that commentators are wearing our their thesauruses.

At this time last year, the key concern in western Canada was about dry conditions in some of the most important lentil and canaryseed growing regions. As seeding approached, the drought broke. Unfortunately, the rains did not stop and by the time the window for seeding crops had closed, western Canadian farmers were unable to plant at least six million acres of land.

Wet conditions persisted well into harvest and by the time winter forced them to stop working fields, farmers had to abandon 8% of the lentil crop, 5.3% of the peas they had planted, and 6.9% of the canaryseed. Beyond that, the wet growing season resulted in one of the poorest quality harvests on record, making it hard for exporters and processors to locate the qualities needed to meet shipping commitments.

Vast tracts of land in Saskatchewan started the winter fully saturated. Snowfall has been abundant across much of the province. Good snow cover helps maintain soil moisture reserves, whereas poor snow cover allows moisture to evaporate during the winter. The fear in many parts of Saskatchewan is that they will experience flooding when the snow melts because the water cannot be absorbed by the soil and will simply run off.