Bulls See Red in Crop Report

VANCOUVER - Aug 20/10 - SNS -- Statistics Canada failed to settle the debate over how large this year's prospective harvest will be, with seeded area and forecast yields coming in higher than believed by a relatively large and passionate segment of the pulse trade.

Land in most special crops was down from the June seeded area estimates and yields are mostly down from last year, but slightly higher than their recent five-year average. Statistics Canada also thinks a relatively high acreage will not be harvested, but that number is less than feared.

Of Saskatchewan's 2.9 million acres of lentils, the federal agency said farmers do not expect to harvest 180,000 acres or just over 6% of the crop. The proportion of peas which may not be harvested is higher at roughly 7% or 170,000 acres of the 2.4 million planted. The percentage of mustard and canaryseed expected to be abandoned is similar at around 7% and 5% respectively. Chickpeas look the worst though, with farmers expecting to abandon over 13% or 20,000 of the 150,000 acres they are believed to have planted in Saskatchewan.

Alberta's farmers expect to harvest all the mustard seed they have sown, while they expect to abandon 6,000 of the 50,000 acres of colored beans planted in the province, along with 30,0000 of the 910,000 acres of peas. Manitoba's farmers expect to abandon 3,000 of the 25,000 acres of canaryseed planted; 20,000 of the 115,000 acres of peas; only 5,000 of the 85,000 acres of colored beans and none of the 40,000 acres of white beans planted. In the case of soybeans, Manitoba farmers expect to abandon 35,000 of the 470,000 acres sown.

The overall drop in actual planted area from this year's intentions reflects what has happened with other crops. As a consequence, Statistics Canada notes that summerfallow (land on which no crop will be grown during the year) nearly doubled from 6.23 to 12.08 million acres, mostly because of flooding. This is the highest level for idle land since 1999.

Statistics Canada's conclusions about the status of the crop are based on a survey of 14,400 Canadian farmers between July 26 and August 3. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

Looking at the overall crop situation, Statistics Canada said, "Prairie farmers reported they expect to produce less wheat and canola in 2010 compared with 2009, while farmers in Ontario and Quebec could produce more soybeans. . . Total wheat production in the Prairies is expected to reach 20.5 million metric tons (MT), a drop of 15.5% from 2009. Harvested area is expected to decline by 3.3 million acres.

Canola production is expected to reach 10.7 million MT, down 977,400 MT from last year due to a drop in yield from an estimated 34.6 bushels per acre to 30.7 bushels per acre. Farmers in Manitoba and Saskatchewan reported potential declines in area harvested, yield and production. Alberta farmers reported a rise in production, up 30.6% to 4.1 million MT, the result of predicted increases in yield and harvested area.

Farmers in Quebec, Ontario and Manitoba predict increases in soybean production to record levels, due to an expected new high in harvested area and robust yields in all three provinces. Soybean production in Quebec is anticipated to reach a new high of 730,000 MT. This optimism is based on an increase in harvested area, up 12.2% to an estimated 659,800 acres. Ontario farmers expect soybean production to rise 8.1% to 2.8 million MT, the result of an increase of 45,000 harvested acres to 2.4 million acres. Manitoba farmers anticipate producing 342,900 MT of soybeans, an increase of 6.8% from 2009. Farmers expect to harvest an additional 35,000 acres of soybeans in 2010.