Soybean Seeding Slow; Grains Closer to Normal
WASHINGTON - May 20/02 - SNS -- Relatively good seeding progress was reported during the past week, according to this week's preliminary crop progress report from the USDA.
However, seeding of all crops remains well behind last year and the recent average. Soybean seeding is moving ahead the most slowly, with only 35% in the ground, compared to 55% at this time last year. By contrast, planting this year's grains is moving at a rate closer the last year and the recent average.
Markets remain nervous about seeding progress, with planting of key crops such as corn and soybeans not moving forward as quickly as expected by the trade. Traders were looking for the USDA top report 75% of the corn crop was in the ground, compared to the 70% reported this afternoon.
Alaron Trading Corporation analyst Tim Hannagan said current weather reports indicate this week would be dry and eastern grain belt states could catch up on planting.
"(But) it appears that the planting window will only open half way as it looks dry into Wednesday before another system of heavy rains enter the corn and bean belt Thursday and Friday. This looks to further curtail the planting in key eastern states: IL, IN, and OH.
"They will get it in, but more of the crop will be planted in the last quarter of the preferred planting dates, leaving it to be in its key yield develop time when our hottest driest days of July surface. This should lend support to prices this week," Hannagan said.
United States Seeding Progress
(per cent planted on May 19)
---------------------------------------------
: Week Ending :
:-----------------------: 1997-
:May 19,:May 12,:May 19,: 2001
: 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg.
---------------------------------------------
Corn : 70 62 88 87
Soybean : 30 17 55 50
Cotton : 69 55 70 67
Spring Wheat : 71 47 75 78
Barley : 74 48 79 78
Oats : 83 68 85 87
Sorghum : 36 30 43 38
Rice : 89 83 95 90
Peanuts : 61 37 67 62
Sugarbeets : 90 76 81 90
Sunflower : 6 NA 8 NA
---------------------------------------------
Soybean markets are not just concerned about the slow rate of seeding this year's crop. They are also worried about emergence. As of today, the USDA reckons only 6% of the soybean crop has emerged, down from 27% at this time last year. Predictions temperatures will remain on the cool side most of the week are not helpful, because seeds need heat to get going.
Jean Yunker, Benson-Quinn's soybean analyst, said despite the bullish nature of slow seeding progress and germination "this market is very overbought and vulnerable to a correction and profit taking. Expect support to continue until cash beans fill pipeline and planting moves forward."
Yunker says the resistance level in November beans "is 491 ½, 498 but caution advised over this lofty territory. Breaking that, next resistance is 514. Support is 480 ½, 479."
United States Crop Emergence
(per cent as of May 19)
---------------------------------------------
: Week Ending :
:-----------------------: 1997-
:May 19,:May 12,:May 19,: 2001
: 2002 : 2002 : 2001 : Avg.
---------------------------------------------
Corn : 34 21 62 NA
Soybeans : 6 3 27 NA
Barley : 34 21 47 53
Spring Wheat : 33 16 41 53
Oats : 56 43 62 68
Rice : 76 67 82 70
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The quality of this year's winter wheat crop is virtually unchanged from last week, though still inching downward. In its preliminary estimate of crop quality, the USDA dropped the percentage of wheat in the good to excellent category one point to 33%. It left the percentage deemed fair at 31%, and increasing crops rated poor one point to 20% and leaving the very poor fraction unchanged at 16%.
In its first estimate of the quality of this year's oat crop, the USDA said 64% of the crop was in the good to excellent category, down from 73% last year. Crops rated fair were pegged at 32%, while 4% was rated poor or worse. This year's rice crops are also not doing as well as last year, with the proportion rated good to excellent starting the season at 62%, down from 72% last year. Nine percent of the crop is rated poor or worse, up from 3% last year. The balance is rated fair.
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