Winter Wheat Yields Slump Further

WASHINGTON - Aug 12/20 - SNS -- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.20 billion bushels, down 2% from the previous forecast and down 8% from 2019, according to the latest USDA crop production forecast.

Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 51.1 bushels per acre, down 0.9 bushel from last month and down 2.5 bushels from last year's average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. If realized, this will be the third highest yield on record.

Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 23.4 million acres, unchanged from last month, but down 4% from last year. Record high yields are forecast in Montana, Oklahoma, and South Dakota for 2020.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are above last year's levels in Oklahoma, but below last year's level in Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas. As of August 2, harvest progress was behind normal by 32 percentage points in Montana. In South Dakota, harvest progress was 11 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace. Harvest progress was complete or nearly complete in California, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Illinois and Ohio but below last year's level in Missouri. As of August 2, harvest progress was in Michigan was 5 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average pace. Harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was complete or nearly complete in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year. Harvest progress in the Pacific Northwest was behind the respective 5-year average pace by more than 5 percentage points as of August 2. Seventy-six% of the Washington acreage was rated in good to excellent condition as of August 2.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2019 and
Forecasted August 1, 2020
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2020        :           :
                :  2019   :  2020   :  2019  :-------------------:   2019    :   2020
                :         :         :        : July 1  :August 1 :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:     50        75     52.0     56.0      56.0         2,600       4,200
California .....:    100        90     50.0     85.0      85.0         5,000       7,650
Colorado .......:  2,000     1,550     49.0     33.0      30.0        98,000      46,500
Idaho ..........:    680       670     87.0     90.0      92.0        59,160      61,640
Illinois .......:    550       500     67.0     68.0      68.0        36,850      34,000
Indiana ........:    260       310     62.0     70.0      67.0        16,120      20,770
Kansas .........:  6,500     6,400     52.0     48.0      46.0       338,000     294,400
Kentucky .......:    330       375     76.0     63.0      64.0        25,080      24,000
Maryland .......:    165       190     75.0     72.0      74.0        12,375      14,060
Michigan .......:    480       480     71.0     80.0      77.0        34,080      36,960
                :
Mississippi ....:     21        20     47.0     43.0      43.0           987         860
Missouri .......:    390       390     63.0     63.0      63.0        24,570      24,570
Montana ........:  1,900     1,450     50.0     49.0      52.0        95,000      75,400
Nebraska .......:    970       850     57.0     48.0      43.0        55,290      36,550
North Carolina .:    225       380     56.0     61.0      60.0        12,600      22,800
North Dakota ...:     70        35     53.0     40.0      40.0         3,710       1,400
Ohio ...........:    385       480     56.0     75.0      71.0        21,560      34,080
Oklahoma .......:  2,750     2,700     40.0     42.0      42.0       110,000     113,400
Oregon .........:    730       730     68.0     60.0      59.0        49,640      43,070
South Dakota ...:    770       580     52.0     51.0      60.0        40,040      34,800
                :
Tennessee ......:    215       230     67.0     61.0      61.0        14,405      14,030
Texas ..........:  2,050     2,100     34.0     32.0      30.0        69,700      63,000
Virginia .......:    105       165     62.0     61.0      61.0         6,510      10,065
Washington .....:  1,700     1,650     70.0     74.0      74.0       119,000     122,100
Wisconsin ......:    150       120     64.0     70.0      71.0         9,600       8,520
                :
Other States 1/ :    781       919     56.5     53.8      53.9        44,126      49,537
                :
United States ..: 24,327    23,439     53.6     52.0      51.1     1,304,003   1,198,362
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York,
   Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will
   be published in the "Small Grains 2020 Summary."