WASHINGTON - Jul 12/18 - SNS -- Winter wheat production in the U.S. is forecast at 1.19 billion bushels, down less than 1% from the June 1 forecast and down 6% from 2017, according to the USDA's latest crop production estimates.
Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 48.0 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel from last month and down 2.2 bushels from last year's average yield of 50.2 bushels per acre. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 24.8 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 29, 2018, but down 2% from last year. A record high yield is forecast in Montana for 2018.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are below last year's final head count in all States except Texas. As of July 1, harvest progress was at or behind normal in all major Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Colorado, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Illinois and Ohio but below last year's level in Missouri. As of July 1, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was ahead of normal in all major producing States except Michigan where harvest had not yet begun.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year. Eighty-two% of the Washington crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition as of July 1.
Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2017 and Forecasted July 1, 2018 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production :------------------------------------------------------------------------ State : : : : 2018 : : : 2017 : 2018 : 2017 :-------------------: 2017 : 2018 : : : : June 1 : July 1 : : ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : 1,000 acres ------- bushels ------- --- 1,000 bushels --- : Arkansas .......: 125 100 52.0 60.0 56.0 6,500 5,600 California .....: 155 150 64.0 83.0 78.0 9,920 11,700 Colorado .......: 2,020 2,050 43.0 40.0 37.0 86,860 75,850 Idaho ..........: 670 720 80.0 83.0 82.0 53,600 59,040 Illinois .......: 470 550 76.0 75.0 69.0 35,720 37,950 Indiana ........: 240 255 74.0 78.0 76.0 17,760 19,380 Kansas .........: 6,950 7,300 48.0 37.0 38.0 333,600 277,400 Kentucky .......: 310 350 77.0 80.0 65.0 23,870 22,750 Maryland .......: 185 200 71.0 68.0 64.0 13,135 12,800 Michigan .......: 425 500 79.0 90.0 85.0 33,575 42,500 : Mississippi ....: 25 35 58.0 62.0 59.0 1,450 2,065 Missouri .......: 540 530 68.0 65.0 64.0 36,720 33,920 Montana ........: 1,590 1,450 42.0 48.0 50.0 66,780 72,500 Nebraska .......: 1,020 1,000 46.0 45.0 48.0 46,920 48,000 North Carolina .: 375 390 55.0 55.0 55.0 20,625 21,450 North Dakota ...: 35 70 37.0 44.0 44.0 1,295 3,080 Ohio ...........: 435 450 74.0 79.0 79.0 32,190 35,550 Oklahoma .......: 2,900 2,200 34.0 26.0 25.0 98,600 55,000 Oregon .........: 690 710 63.0 54.0 54.0 43,470 38,340 South Dakota ...: 520 730 40.0 54.0 52.0 20,800 37,960 : Tennessee ......: 275 295 70.0 75.0 63.0 19,250 18,585 Texas ..........: 2,350 1,800 29.0 27.0 30.0 68,150 54,000 Virginia .......: 145 150 66.0 63.0 59.0 9,570 8,850 Washington .....: 1,650 1,650 73.0 73.0 76.0 120,450 125,400 Wisconsin ......: 170 220 68.0 70.0 68.0 11,560 14,960 : Other States 1/ : 1,021 976 55.9 55.9 59.4 57,067 57,955 : United States ..: 25,291 24,831 50.2 48.4 48.0 1,269,437 1,192,585 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2018 Summary."
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