USDA Boosts Winter Wheat Forecast

WASHINGTON - Jul 12/17 - SNS -- This year's winter wheat harvest in the United States is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels, up 2% from the June 1 forecast but down 23% from 2016, according to the latest USDA crop forecast.

Based on July 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 49.7 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from last month but down 5.6 bushels from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 25.8 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2017, but down 15% from last year. As of July 2, 48% of the winter wheat crop in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 14 percentage points below the same time last year.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are below last year's final head count in all States. As of July 2, harvest progress was equal to or ahead of normal in all major Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except California, Colorado, and Nebraska. Yield increases from last month in the HRW growing area are expected in Colorado and Kansas but yield decreases are expected in California, Montana, South Dakota, and Texas. Estimates are unchanged from the previous month in Nebraska, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are above last year's levels in Missouri and Ohio, but below last year's level in Illinois. As of July 2, harvest progress in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was ahead of normal in all major producing States except Michigan.

Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are below last year. Eighty-four% of the Washington crop was rated in mostly good to excellent condition as of July 2. In the Pacific Northwest, development was delayed by a wet winter and spring flooding.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2016 and
Forecasted July 1, 2017
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2017        :           :
                :  2016   :  2017   :  2016  :-------------------:   2016    :   2017
                :         :         :        : June 1  : July 1  :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    115       130     54.0     55.0      55.0         6,210       7,150
California .....:    170       175     78.0     77.0      65.0        13,260      11,375
Colorado .......:  2,190     2,000     48.0     40.0      42.0       105,120      84,000
Idaho ..........:    710       680     94.0     84.0      86.0        66,740      58,480
Illinois .......:    470       490     74.0     73.0      75.0        34,780      36,750
Indiana ........:    280       260     81.0     78.0      76.0        22,680      19,760
Kansas .........:  8,200     6,900     57.0     44.0      47.0       467,400     324,300
Kentucky .......:    400       340     80.0     72.0      77.0        32,000      26,180
Maryland .......:    260       240     64.0     64.0      72.0        16,640      17,280
Michigan .......:    570       430     89.0     85.0      84.0        50,730      36,120
                :
Mississippi ....:     50        40     48.0     60.0      63.0         2,400       2,520
Missouri .......:    570       510     70.0     63.0      68.0        39,900      34,680
Montana ........:  2,150     1,720     49.0     46.0      44.0       105,350      75,680
Nebraska .......:  1,310     1,000     54.0     46.0      46.0        70,740      46,000
North Carolina .:    355       410     41.0     53.0      53.0        14,555      21,730
North Dakota ...:    120        40     48.0     38.0      38.0         5,760       1,520
Ohio ...........:    560       420     80.0     76.0      75.0        44,800      31,500
Oklahoma .......:  3,500     2,750     39.0     33.0      33.0       136,500      90,750
Oregon .........:    710       710     50.0     58.0      61.0        35,500      43,310
South Dakota ...:  1,100       650     58.0     50.0      43.0        63,800      27,950
                :
Tennessee ......:    335       285     73.0     73.0      72.0        24,455      20,520
Texas ..........:  2,800     2,500     32.0     30.0      28.0        89,600      70,000
Virginia .......:    175       130     53.0     64.0      62.0         9,275       8,060
Washington .....:  1,670     1,660     78.0     65.0      67.0       130,260     111,220
Wisconsin ......:    250       190     79.0     77.0      77.0        19,750      14,630
                :
Other States 1/ :  1,202     1,100     52.7     51.7      52.6        63,327      57,898
                :
United States ..: 30,222    25,760     55.3     48.9      49.7     1,671,532   1,279,363
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana,
   Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, South Carolina,
   Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State level estimates will be published
   in the "Small Grains 2017 Summary."