MADISON - Nov 12/15 - SNS -- The USDA published its latest review of dairy market conditions in Australia and New Zealand today.
OCEANIA OVERVIEW: Australian milk production is holding mostly steady at volumes just off the seasonal peak levels likely seen just a few weeks ago. The overall peak was below projections and slightly earlier than expected. The hope is that output can sustain at current volumes for a longer period before declining. These circumstances will likely have a negative impact on the overall yearly milk production projections. Substantial rainfall has been received across much of Australia. The hope is that the moisture can replenish soil conditions and help crops and hay. The expectations are that hay and grain supplies will be tighter and at higher prices. Some grain crops are being cut for hay needs, but the feed values tend to be lower than anticipated. High water rates are also impacting cropping. Milk prices are generally stable. Dairy Australia reports dairy product exports for the period of July to September 2015 totaled 171.9 thousand MT, up 6.7% from a year ago. Selected dairy product export changes compared to the same period last year are: butter, -27.5%; butter oil, -33.5%; cheddar, +8.8%; SMP, +35.9%; WMP, -3.1% and whey products -39.8%. The value of exports increased 6.6% over the same period in 2014. The New Zealand milk production season is moving on as anticipated. The peak was reached in mid-October. Weather conditions are generally as expected. There are concerns about pasture conditions and lack of pasture growth as the season progresses. Milk production projections are still expected to be lower by 5% or so, mirroring current season to date estimates. Dairy commodity prices are trending lower across categories. There are more pricing pressures as demand has slowed and product offerings are increasing. GDT SUMMARY: At the November 3 GDT event #151, average prices ranged from 11.2% to 4.6% lower from the prior event across categories. The all contracts price averages (US$ per MT) and percent changes from the previous average are: anhydrous milk fat, $3,647 -5.7%; butter, $2,574 -5.6%; buttermilk powder, $1,844 -9.4%; cheddar cheese, $2,987 -4.6%; lactose, n.a.; rennet casein, $5,469 -11.2%; skim milk powder, $2,018 -8.0%; and whole milk powder, $2,453 -8.0%. 0930C Butch.Speth@ams.usda.gov 608.557.7001 USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin Dairy Market News website: http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/dairy Dairy Market News database portal: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home
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