USDA Trims Winter Wheat Crop

WASHINGTON - Aug 13/15 - SNS -- Winter wheat production in the United States is forecast at 1.44 billion bushels, down 1% from the July 1 forecast but up 4% from 2014, according to the latest USDA production forecast for 2015.

Based on August 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 43.2 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from last month but up 0.6 bushel from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 33.3 million acres, unchanged from last month but up 3% from last year.

Harvest was nearly complete by the beginning of August in all Hard Red Winter (HRW) States except Colorado, Montana, and South Dakota. Harvest in Montana was reported at 70% complete as of August 2, fifty percentage points ahead of normal, while South Dakota reported 76% harvested, 4 percentage points above the 5-year average. Yield expectations were down from last month in the HRW growing area except South Dakota.

As of August 2, harvest in the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area was virtually complete in all States except Michigan. Yield forecasts are up from the July 1 forecast in Maryland, Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin but down from last month in Indiana, Kentucky, and Virginia. Growers in Michigan are expecting a record high yield.

At the beginning of August, harvest in the Pacific Northwest was ahead of the 5-year average. Yield forecasts are down from last month in Idaho and Washington, but unchanged in Oregon.

Winter Wheat Area Harvested, Yield, and Production - States and United States: 2014 and
Forecasted August 1, 2015
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :  Area harvested   :       Yield per acre       :      Production
                :------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State     :         :         :        :       2015        :           :
                :  2014   :  2015   :  2014  :-------------------:   2014    :   2015
                :         :         :        : July 1  :August 1 :           :
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                :    1,000 acres       ------- bushels -------     --- 1,000 bushels ---
                :
Arkansas .......:    395       270     63.0     53.0      53.0        24,885      14,310
California .....:    180       190     80.0     65.0      65.0        14,400      12,350
Colorado .......:  2,350     2,250     38.0     39.0      37.0        89,300      83,250
Georgia ........:    230       190     49.0     46.0      46.0        11,270       8,740
Idaho ..........:    730       720     80.0     79.0      77.0        58,400      55,440
Illinois .......:    670       560     67.0     66.0      65.0        44,890      36,400
Indiana ........:    335       305     76.0     72.0      70.0        25,460      21,350
Kansas .........:  8,800     8,800     28.0     38.0      38.0       246,400     334,400
Kentucky .......:    510       450     71.0     72.0      70.0        36,210      31,500
Maryland .......:    250       260     70.0     64.0      65.0        17,500      16,900
                :
Michigan .......:    485       500     74.0     76.0      80.0        35,890      40,000
Mississippi ....:    215       145     58.0     47.0      47.0        12,470       6,815
Missouri .......:    740       710     58.0     56.0      54.0        42,920      38,340
Montana ........:  2,240     2,300     41.0     41.0      41.0        91,840      94,300
Nebraska .......:  1,450     1,300     49.0     42.0      40.0        71,050      52,000
New York .......:     95       118     63.0     62.0      63.0         5,985       7,434
North Carolina .:    770       630     58.0     53.0      53.0        44,660      33,390
North Dakota ...:    555       235     49.0     51.0      51.0        27,195      11,985
Ohio ...........:    545       500     74.0     70.0      65.0        40,330      32,500
Oklahoma .......:  2,800     3,700     17.0     26.0      25.0        47,600      92,500
                :
Oregon .........:    740       760     55.0     51.0      51.0        40,700      38,760
Pennsylvania ...:    150       170     65.0     63.0      63.0         9,750      10,710
South Carolina .:    220       170     52.0     50.0      50.0        11,440       8,500
South Dakota ...:  1,080       960     55.0     41.0      42.0        59,400      40,320
Tennessee ......:    475       410     66.0     67.0      67.0        31,350      27,470
Texas ..........:  2,250     3,600     30.0     31.0      31.0        67,500     111,600
Virginia .......:    260       225     68.0     67.0      63.0        17,680      14,175
Washington .....:  1,640     1,690     52.0     59.0      58.0        85,280      98,020
Wisconsin ......:    250       230     65.0     72.0      75.0        16,250      17,250
                :
Other States 1/ :    894       981     55.4     48.9      48.5        49,521      47,569
                :
United States ..: 32,304    33,329     42.6     43.7      43.2     1,377,526   1,438,278
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota,
   Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Individual State
   level estimates will be published in the "Small Grains 2015 Summary."