Reliability of USDA's Sugust Crop Forecast
Reliability of August 1 Crop Production Forecasts
[Based on data for the past twenty years]
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: : : Difference between forecast
: : : and final estimate
: : :-------------------------------------------------------
: :90 percent : Production : Years
Crop : Root mean :confidence :-------------------------------------------------------
:square error: interval : : : : Below : Above
: : : Average :Smallest : Largest : final : final
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: ---- percent --- --------- millions -------- --- number --
:
Barley ................bushels: 6.4 11.1 13 1 25 5 15
Corn for grain ........bushels: 4.3 7.5 344 16 940 10 10
Dry edible beans ..........cwt: 7.6 13.2 1 (Z) 5 14 6
Oats ..................bushels: 11.4 19.7 11 (Z) 27 1 19
Rice ......................cwt: 3.8 6.5 7 1 17 11 9
Sorghum for grain .....bushels: 9.1 15.8 29 (Z) 107 10 10
Soybeans for bean .....bushels: 6.6 11.5 153 6 408 12 8
Upland cotton 1/ ........bales: 8.8 15.2 1,282 192 3,921 8 12
Wheat ........................:
Durum wheat ..........bushels: 9.0 15.5 6 (Z) 14 6 14
Other spring .........bushels: 7.1 12.3 30 3 69 11 9
Winter wheat .........bushels: 1.8 3.2 21 (Z) 71 6 14
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(Z) Less than half of the unit shown.
1/ Quantity is in thousands of units.
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