Oceania Dairy Market Overview

MADISON - Feb 5/15 - SNS -- The USDA published its latest review of dairy market conditions in Australia and New Zealand today.

OCEANIA OVERVIEW:
Australian milk production moved marginally lower, compared to the previous
report.  Australia experienced its third warmest year on record in 2014 with
seasonally average rainfall.  Many parts of the country are already experiencing
dry conditions which will impact livestock and crops in 2015.  Prices for most
dairy commodities have seen some recovery as uncommitted supplies are running
tighter than anticipated.  Hay demand has slowed as dairy producers are utilizing
summer forage crops and available paddocks.  Corporate activity across Australia
in 2014 was active with various acquisitions, mergers and building projects.  Many
in the industry anticipate a continuation of this trend in 2015.  Dairy Australia
reports dairy product exports for the July-November period totaling 291.8 thousand
MT, up 1.1% from the year ago period. Various dairy product export changes
compared to the same period last year are: butter, -20.9%; butter oil, -12.5%;
cheddar, -11.2%; SMP, +27.2%; WMP, -33.8% and whey products -0.7%.  The total
value of exports for the July-November period was down 10.9%.   According to Dairy
Australia, December 2014 milk production in Australia was 1.6% below December
2013. The state changes from a year earlier are: New South Wales, unchanged;
Victoria, -3.2%; Queensland, -6.1%; South Australia, -1.3%; Western Australia,
+6.0% and Tasmania +7.2%. Australia's milk production season to date (July-
December) is +2.6%, compared to last season.   Dairy Australia also reported,
production of various dairy commodities for November 2014 showing the following
percentage changes compared to 2013: butter, +1.5%; butteroil, +15.6%; skim milk
powder, +18.3%; whole milk powder, -28.2%; buttermilk powder, +10.4%; cheese,
+20.0%; and whey powder, unchanged.
The big news out of New Zealand has been the downgrade in this season's milk
production forecast by various cooperatives.  The combination of dry weather and
low farmgate prices are bringing a quick end to milk production on both islands.
The accelerated declines have prompted cooperatives to lower their seasonal
forecasts with some cooperatives estimating this year's production falling 3% or
more, compared to last year.   Dairy product supplies are adequate to cover
current commitments, but the declines in production will likely decrease volumes
offered on future GDT auctions.  The announcement of forecasts below year ago
levels and the likelihood of reduced GDT volumes has sparked buyer interest for
various dairy products, especially whole milk powder.  November milk production as
reported by DCANZ was 3.045 million MT, up 2.8% from November 2013 and 6.9% higher
than the level two years ago.  November milksolids reflected a 5.0% increase
compared November 2013.  At the February 3 GDT event #133, average prices ranged
from 11.1% lower to 19.2% higher from the prior event across categories. The all
contracts price averages (US$ per MT) and percent changes from the previous
average are:  anhydrous milk fat, $4,067 -5.4%; butter, $3,783 +6.1%; buttermilk
powder, $2,436 -0.4%; cheddar cheese, $2,636 -11.1%; lactose, n.a.; rennet casein,
$8,776 +7.7%; skim milk powder, $2,598 +6.7%; sweet whey powder, n.a.; and whole
milk powder, $2,874 +19.2%.
0930C rick.whipp@ams.usda.gov 608.278.4151
USDA/AMS/Dairy Market News, Madison, Wisconsin
Dairy Market News website: www.ams.usda.gov/dairymarketnews
Dairy Market News database portal: http://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/da-home

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