Linn Group Morning Soybean Comment

CHICAGO - Sep 13/07 - SNS -- Following is the morning soybean futures comment from the futures commission brokerage firm Linn Group.

November soybeans closed 18 cents higher on Wednesday. The release of the
much anticipated USDA numbers were supportive to soybeans. After opening a
nickel higher soybeans soared almost 40 cents higher setting a new contract
high before breaking 21 cents off those highs in the last hour of trade.
Yesterdays price action took beans to their highest levels since July of
2004. In the USDA's report they cut yields .1 to 41.4 bpa which was
considerably less than analysts expected. They also cut their estimates of
the overall crop to 2.619 bil. bu from 2.625 bil bu in August. This new
figure was below the average trade estimate of 2.649 bil bu. The major
change came in oil stocks  as the USDA reports biodiesel sales are
expanding. The report reflected a 500 mil. lb boost in soybean oil
consumption by the biodiesel industry for the upcoming year. This report
surprised analysts as biodiesel profit margins have poor and plants are
running below capacity due to the high costs of feedstocks. Volume on
Wednesday was very heavy with 184,555 soybean futures traded, 75,984 soybean
oil and 74,787 meal futures traded. Funds were active buyers as well buying
an estimated 9,000 soybeans, 7,000 oil and 3,500 meal.
Early opening calls are slightly weaker as traders expect a slight
correction after yesterdays surge to new three year highs. There is some
concerns of frost Friday evening in portions of the Midwest that could
threaten soybean crop quality. Farmers say its too early for frost and it
could cause some damage. Today the USDA released the weekly export sales
figures showing bean sales of 346,500 mt. This was within the range of
analysts expectations which were 300,000 to 550,000 mt. Meal sales were
54,100 mt within range of estimates of 50,000 to 100,000 mt. Oil sales were
reported at 6,200 mt at the lower end of the range of estimates for 0 to
20,000 mt. Overnight Chinese soybeans, meal and oil futures closed higher.
Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher.
Early Opening Calls: mixed, slightly lower
Top News
**USDA Soybeans 07/08 Export Sales Net: 346,500 mt; expected 300,000-550,000
**USDA Soybean Meal 06/07 Export Sales Net: 34,500 mt; 07/08 Export Sales
Net: 18,700 mt; expected 75-150,000
**USDA Soybean Oil 06/07 Export Sales Net: 6,200 mt; expected 5-20,000
-- Weather forecasters and energy traders alike eyeing the Atlantic Ocean,
where Tropical Storm Ingrid is expected to form within the day
-- Dalian Soybean futures sharply higher, Jan 65 yuan/t higher, active May
58 yuan/t higher; soymeal mixed: Jan 8 higher, but active May 15 yuan lower;
soyoil higher
-- Malaysian Palm rose 20 ringgit in Nov futures.
-- eCBOT Vol. 134,399; Pit Vol. 45,035; Open Interest Change: +8,544
-- Weather: Normal to Above Temps. Normal to Below Precip.
-- Outside markets: Energy complex: crude lower, products mixed with
gasoline higher ; Gold & Silver lower; US $ rebounds slightly from record
lows vs Euro
Cash Markets
--CIF Soybeans up 1 to 8. Sept. +25 to +??, LH Sept. +25 to +??, Oct. +32 to
+36, Nov. +43 to +52, Dec. +42 to +45, Jan. +47 to +50, Feb. +25, Mar. +33
to +35
To discuss this report further or for specific trade ideas please contact me
directly
Nathan T. Smith III
Linn Group
nsmith@linngroup.com
toll free: (877) 787-6278
local: (312) 896-2090
fax: (312) 896-2050
www.linngroup.com/

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