World Food Inflation Easing
ROME - Mar 8/24 - SNS -- International food ingredient values declined for the seventh consecutive month in February, as lower international quotations for all major cereals more than offset rising prices of sugar and meat, reports the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally-traded food commodities, averaged 117.3 points in February, down 0.7% from January and 10.5% from the same month a year ago.
The FAO Cereal Price Index decreased by 5.0% in February to reach a level 22.4% below that of February 2023. Maize export prices dropped the most amid expectations of large harvests in South America and competitive prices offered by Ukraine, while international wheat prices declined mostly due to a strong export pace from the Russian Federation. International rice prices also declined, by 1.6% in February.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index decreased by 1.3% from January to stand 11% below its February 2023 value. International soyoil prices dropped markedly, underpinned by prospects of abundant soybean outputs in South America, while ample global export availabilities of sunflower and rapeseed oils pushed their prices down. World palm oil prices rose marginally in February due to seasonally lower production.
STAT's global pulse price index continued to buck the trend in grains and oilseeds, rising 1.6% from its January average to 116.9 points in February, up 15.9% from the same month last year. The Canadian pulse price index advanced 0.8% on the month to 110.5 points, while the U.S. inedex rose 1.8% from January to 111.8.
The FAO Sugar Price Index, by contrast, rose 3.2% in February. The increase reflected persistent concerns over Brazilâs upcoming output after a prolonged period of below-average rainfall as well as forecast production declines in Thailand and India, two leading exporting countries.
The FAO Meat Price Index rose by 1.8% from January, with poultry meat quotations rising the most, followed by those for bovine meat, impacted by heavy rains disrupting cattle transportation in Australia. Pig meat prices also rose slightly due to higher demand from China and a tight supply situation in Western Europe. International ovine meat prices declined due in part to record-breaking production following flock rebuilding in Australia.
The FAO Dairy Price Index increased by 1.1%, led by higher import demand from Asian buyers for butter. Prices of milk powders and cheese also rose marginally.
FAO UPdated Global Grains Forecast
FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, slightly raising its forecast for the world total cereal production in 2023 to 2,840 million metric tons (MT) and offering a number of new projections.
Global cereal utilization in 2023-24 is now forecast at 2,823 million MT, an increase of 1.1% from the previous year due mostly to increased use of maize and wheat for livestock feed.
Global cereal stocks are expected to increase, due entirely to coarse grains, with the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio foreseen ending the year at a "comfortable" 31.1% level, up from 30.9%. World trade in cereals is predicted to increase by 1.3% from the previous year, buoyed by an improved outlook for maize exports by Ukraine and stronger demand from China.
FAO also released its preliminary forecast for global wheat production in 2024, pegging it at 797 million MT, a 1.0% increase from 2023. Lower wheat prices have elicited a 6% year-on-year decline in winter wheat planting in North America, where outputs may nonetheless rise due to strong yield prospects.
Favourable weather conditions are also propping up expectations of increased 2024 wheat production in the Russian Federation, an export powerhouse, as well as China, India, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan and Türkiye.
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